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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KyrosL who wrote (20600)	7/29/2007 12:47:53 PM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 220217

Yes, they do, all you say is true. But without replacing population, all of that will in time wither away. With the kind of population decline forecast for Europe, per capita GDP will have to soar for it to remain at current levels. As a developed region, not undergoing the initial stages of development China is undergoing, it is a virtual certainty that per capita GDP will decline and decline drastically. Europe is screwed in the long term. How it will cope with these demographic trends is a mystery to me. Absolutely inevitable. The US on the other hand is replacing its population and appears to be doing so systematically.

To: KyrosL who wrote (20600)	7/29/2007 1:34:01 PM
From: critical_mass	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 220217

High skilled Germans, especially medical doctors, started bailing out of Germany around 2004. The trend has not reversed as the economy has become better. bloomberg.com

To: KyrosL who wrote (20600)	7/29/2007 5:39:04 PM
From: Lazarus_Long	Respond to of 220217

They run a net trade surplus, in spite of their almost total dependence on oil and NG imports. Since the end of WWII, Europe has counted on the US to defend it. It had little need for military expenditure because Uncle Sam would rescue it. France went so far as to withdraw from the military provisions of the North Atlantic Treaty, knowing that a military ground attack by the USSR would have to go through the FRG first, automatically drawing in the US at no cost to France. The cost of the defense of Europe was transferred to the US. 131.111.165.101 Who's ahead? You wish recent history in making your statement. You forget the many decades after WW2 when the US ran a favorable balance of trade with Europe. This also indicates the situation in more complex when everything- -more than just goods trade- -is thrown in. books.google.com Oh. Europe has oil. Remember the North Sea? mindbranch.com Known reserves are small and will soon be gone. eia.doe.gov European proven reserves are about 1/45 of claimed ME reserves and 1/4 of US reserves. Europe NG price. unctad.org See "Historical Prices" towards the bottom. tonto.eia.doe.gov About the same, apparently. They have high savings rates. federalreserve.gov Look at Table 1. With the exception of Germany, Europe is also developing a current account problem, symptomatic of a savings rate problem. pages.stern.nyu.edu US personal savings rate is 4%. But businessweek.com The number is 2%, But note that most of Europe is below the US. And the US NATIONAL savings rate is not bad at all. They live long, apparently happy, lives. Considerably longer than Americans. You say that with such confidence! cia.gov The US is #45. It is outranked by the Cayman Islands (#14), Israel (#21), Guam(#34), Sr. Pierre (#35), Bosnia (#32)?????, Bermuda (#43), and St. Helena(#44). It outranks Ireland(#48), Denmark(#47), Portugal(#49), Albania (#50), Cuba (#56) (remember Michael Moore?), Slovenia (#61), the Czech Republic (#62), Georgia (#65), Poland (#76), Slovakia(#), Croatia(#), Lithuania(#), Macedionia (#), Hungary Turkey (#104), Bulgaria (#108), Estonia (#112), Armenia (#116), Romania (#118), Latvia (#120), ... All European except Cuba. There are so many more things that go into determining life expectancy than doctors it's hardly funny. One cent spent on well thought out public health measures can be worth more than $100 in a doc's office. Diet is a major determinant. And how much diet. One of the curses of the US has been its cheap food. Obesity kills. Now food is comparatively cheaper in Eirope and their mortality statistics are showing it. One of the reason greece does so well (#24) is believed to be its diet- -unsaturated o;ove oil, whole grain products, fish, fruit. It certainly isn't their health care system. Life expectancy is a very poor proxy for the healthiness of a population.

To: KyrosL who wrote (20600)	7/29/2007 5:40:44 PM
From: Lazarus_Long	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 220217

They run a net trade surplus, in spite of their almost total dependence on oil and NG imports. Since the end of WWII, Europe has counted on the US to defend it. It had little need for military expenditure because Uncle Sam would rescue it. France went so far as to withdraw from the military provisions of the North Atlantic Treaty, knowing that a military ground attack by the USSR would have to go through the FRG first, automatically drawing in the US at no cost to France. The cost of the defense of Europe was transferred to the US. 131.111.165.101 Who's ahead? You wish recent history in making your statement. You forget the many decades after WW2 when the US ran a favorable balance of trade with Europe. This also indicates the situation in more complex when everything- -more than just goods trade- -is thrown in. books.google.com Oh. Europe has oil. Remember the North Sea? mindbranch.com Known reserves are small and will soon be gone. eia.doe.gov European proven reserves are about 1/45 of claimed ME reserves and 1/4 of US reserves. Europe NG price. unctad.org See "Historical Prices" towards the bottom. tonto.eia.doe.gov About the same, apparently. They have high savings rates. federalreserve.gov Look at Table 1. With the exception of Germany, Europe is also developing a current account problem, symptomatic of a savings rate problem. pages.stern.nyu.edu US personal savings rate is 4%. But businessweek.com The number is 2%, But note that most of Europe is below the US. And the US NATIONAL savings rate is not bad at all. They live long, apparently happy, lives. Considerably longer than Americans. You say that with such confidence! cia.gov The US is #45. It is outranked by the Cayman Islands (#14), Israel (#21), Guam(#34), Sr. Pierre (#35), Bosnia (#32)?????, Bermuda (#43), and St. Helena(#44). It outranks Ireland(#48), Denmark(#47), Portugal(#49), Albania (#50), Cuba (#56) (remember Michael Moore?), Slovenia (#61), the Czech Republic (#62), Georgia (#65), Poland (#76), Slovakia(#), Croatia(#), Lithuania(#), Macedionia (#), Hungary Turkey (#104), Bulgaria (#108), Estonia (#112), Armenia (#116), Romania (#118), Latvia (#120), ... All European except Cuba. There are so many more things that go into determining life expectancy than doctors it's hardly funny. One cent spent on well thought out public health measures can be worth more than $100 in a doc's office. Diet is a major determinant. And how much diet. One of the curses of the US has been its cheap food. Obesity kills. Now food is comparatively cheaper in Eirope and their mortality statistics are showing it. One of the reason greece does so well (#24) is believed to be its diet- -unsaturated olive oil, whole grain products, fish, fruit. It certainly isn't their health care system. Life expectancy is a very poor proxy for the healthiness of a population.