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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Petz who wrote (237754)	7/31/2007 1:43:27 AM
From: dougSF30	Respond to of 275872

PS - still awaiting your estimate of Intel yields based on a comparison of fab clean space square footage. That's a silly basis for comparison.

To: Petz who wrote (237754)	7/31/2007 1:44:25 AM
From: dougSF30	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

So, you've already invalidated one of your claims-- you were off by 50% ! You realize you are actually claiming that it takes AMD 20 weeks from wafer start to shipped product?

To: Petz who wrote (237754)	7/31/2007 6:49:26 AM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Re: Inventory is FIFO -- AMD or Intel will obviously sell the oldest parts before the newest parts, so 13 x 1481/4605 is the average number of weeks a freshly minted CPU sits in inventory. You need to divide inventory by the cost fraction of gross margins to compare that number to sales. Otherwise you're comparing apples to oranges. Inventory is reported at cost while sales are reported at retail. So, if GMs are 48%, you have to divide that 1481 by 0.52 (the cost fraction) to compare the numbers. Your result should be (13 x (1481/0.52))/4605 or just over 8 weeks. On top of that is the fact that, on a per CPU basis, the value of a partially processed die in a wafer is a lot lower than that of a packaged and tested CPU. Let's call it 1/2 as a base point. That would stretch the inventory time out to 12 weeks, which I think is pretty close to the actual value and seems to reflect what we generally see (about a quarter between production start and retail availability). Regards, Dan