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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tenchusatsu who wrote (238414)	8/8/2007 5:35:58 PM
From: pgerassi	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Dear Tench: I agree with you on some things. The first stepping will not get to 1 million KGD in Q4. The 3GHz Phenom stepping would be on a very fast ramp though. They have the capacity to spare and the initial demand will be very high especially given the HPC and workstation markets. The desktop market will take the faster DCs and the slower QCs as the bang for buck is higher with those (the smart ones will take the faster DCs and the less informed ones and transcoders, the slower QCs). The 1 million CPUs will wait for Q1 which will sell out even with the normal seasonal downturn. There would be plenty of incentive to sell most of the remaining 90nm CPUs and gobs of the 65nm K8 based ones. Q4 is also the time that inventories generally get eaten up. So Q4 can sell more than they can produce in a quarter. 25% QoQ gain over Q3 is not that unusual. They could have done it in Q4/06,if they had the correct kind of inventory. So even a 40% to 50% YoY gain is also not that unusual either. We will have a better idea of what Q4 has in store by how Q3 goes. If Q3's laptop market share percentages rise a lot, 30% overall rise to Q4 over Q3 units is doable. Pete

To: Tenchusatsu who wrote (238414)	8/9/2007 1:47:49 AM
From: pirasa2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

<<<< A $100 ASP implies at least 13 million units, and surely AMD did not have $100 ASP back in Q4 06 (did it ever?) <<<<<I can believe somewhere closer to 13M units, considering that a large chunk of AMD's revenue comes from servers. Remember, AMD had 22.3% of the server market in Q4 2006. <<<<<LOL, I've been following both INTC and AMD for 10 years now, so I only have one less year of "experience" than you do. Then you are not following closely enough. 1) Q4 is the best quarter of every year for this industry. 70 million units in Q4 does not imply 280 million in a year. Last year the market was 240-250 million units (CPU units, not OEM PC units), so 70 in Q4 is in consistency with that. This year Q4 might hit 75-80 by the way, very good news for AMD, the residual seller. 2) To my knowledge, AMD never achieved $100 ASP. In late 2005, at their peak before C2D, when asked whether their ASPs had hit $100, their response was "we have quite a ways to go before hitting $100". So they weren't just a few dollars short, even at the best of times they were at around $90 ASP. 3) And Q4 2006 was not the best of times. C2D was out, therefore their very high-end as well as Opteron was in a comparative rut. They definitely did not achieve $90 ASP in Q4 2006. $90 implies about 15 million chips, $80 implies about 17 million chips, 70 implies 19+ million chips. The ASP was probably somewhere in between, closer to upper $70s though. 4) So your 13 million for Q4 2006 is laughable, to say the least. 5) This all started with me claiming that they could produce 23-24 million units in Q4 2007. Yes, given that they are much farther along 65 nano and 300 mm compared to Q4 2006 , even with the (rather slow) ramp down of 90 nano, 23-24 million is easily doable.