Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pirasa2 who wrote (238436)	8/9/2007 2:50:38 AM
From: graphicsguru	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Pirasa, your claim of 23 million units in Q4 '07 does not make any sense. Suppose we accept your figure of 70 million units in Q4 '06. I don't think anyone has ever claimed AMD achieved more than 25% overall unit market share. That would mean 17.5 million units. But if you recall, AMD was saying in Q1 and Q2 '06 that they were intentionally building inventory for Q4. So the best you can assert is that AMD actually manufactured something like 16 million units in Q4 '06. Even that sounds high to me. I'd be interested if you have a reference on your 70 million unit figure. Between Q4 '06 and Q4 '07, there is a limited additional ramp of fab 36 and some ramp down of fab 30. More importantly, however, there is a huge shift from single core to dual core. In Q4 '07, you won't be able to give away a single core part. Buggi can already buy single core parts for 16 Euros. What do you think they will cost in Q4? I don't have links for the fraction of single core parts AMD was selling in Q4 '06, but I recall seeing that it was rather significant. Perhaps 40 - 60%. When you take that into account, there will be very little increase in capacity. And AMD is not making noises about building inventory in H1 for H2. Why not? Because inventory of AMD's current parts is losing value at an astonishing rate, and the company is strapped for cash. Life is very different for AMD than a year ago. Let us know how you take all these factors into consideration in your prediction.