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To: Paul Shread who wrote (148084)	8/14/2007 5:28:57 PM
From: Perspective	Respond to of 209892

The 90% downside days can be good warnings that a panic bottom is taking place. However, they can also be indicators of universal breadth. I'm pretty sure this is not a panic bottom. BC

To: Paul Shread who wrote (148084)	8/14/2007 5:29:37 PM
From: skinowski	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

I've been watching those 90% down days starting early in the decline. Do you have any hypotheses as to what this may mean? Maybe since this occurrence is just about unique this may mean that things are serious - and that "this time is different"?

To: Paul Shread who wrote (148084)	8/14/2007 5:51:41 PM
From: Henry J Costanzo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

Hi Paul...Can't put my finger on it, but I think Hulbert had a piece on those 90% days not long ago...quoting Hays...and also considering them bottom signals.. BTW Hulbert now out dissing the VIX...a sentiment with which I have long concurred...vbg

To: Paul Shread who wrote (148084)	8/15/2007 1:29:20 AM
From: GST	Respond to of 209892

90% down days are indeed rare -- but we are in completely uncharted waters here. I would not be surprised to see a dozen 90% down days between here and the end of October. The selling pressure is set to mount as margin calls for average investors get piled on top of margin calls for hedge funds, and as withdrawals from funds surge as untested derivative strategies become tragically unstable. All this is shaping up while bankruptcies soar, private equity buyouts die and we slip into recession. Most of this will be increasingly obvious over the next few months. The lack of fear -- real fear -- is still widespread and misplaced. It is time to be afraid -- because there is something out there to be afraid of and that something is going to eat your lunch if you are not careful. I would be very surprised if we do not see another 20-30% come out of the stock market before we have anything like a "bottom".