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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James Clarke who wrote (27868)	8/23/2007 3:20:57 AM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78748

Jim Clarke. Thanks for sharing your ideas. I'm generally okay with the way I've averaged down --- although it's kind of sloppy and judgmental, and I can't admit to being comfortable while doing it. So there's room for improvement. ----------------------- I'll look a little closer at Borders (BGP). I have a losing position in IQW (Not a retailer. A printer of books, etc. though). The stock drops back a quarter point or so, I'll likely add. P/sales, p/book, company size and geographical and product diversity are positives, imo. I'm a buyer of clothing retailer AEO at current prices. Fwiw, I still have a position in your and the thread's old favorite of ANF, although it's out of my buy range now. I might add to my few shares of LIZ if it drops a point or so. I have a very losing position in jewelry store FNLY. I may add to that one if I could see some catalyst for the stock to recover. I'm considering adding to my losing position in ABER. A high end retailer should hold up with the growth of the brics middle class: ABER owns a diamond mine and the Harry Winston stores. I may up my position in TIF also. For a garp stock, I like WAG a couple points lower. finance.yahoo.com

To: James Clarke who wrote (27868)	8/23/2007 11:10:40 AM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78748

Jim, Personally, I do average down. Previously I did it in 20% drop increments, which ensured that I don't get many average-down steps unless the company is going kaput (here's for your Tolstoy russian... :P). But then, like you I reevaluate the company at each step averaging down and if I find its balance sheet deteriorating or investment case changing, I either stop averaging down or sell the whole position. I almost never average up though. Which may be a mistake. I know I missed a bunch of gains this way. But then maybe missed a bunch of subpar returns too - those are harder to track when you don't average up... And like Paul (and you?) I have often sold way too early. RTRSY is my most painful sell. I got it close to bottom in 2002 and sold for marginal gain. Don't even look where it is right now. :((((((((((((((((

To: James Clarke who wrote (27868)	8/23/2007 11:22:30 AM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78748

Ah, forgot to comment on retailers. I got a position in LIZ and TLB. TLB I would hold lightly, since it is not clear if they will get out of their mess. I have traded it $20-$24 for couple times already and I may do the same again. I missed to buy AEO on recent drops. I may try to get it still.

To: James Clarke who wrote (27868)	8/24/2007 1:35:10 PM
From: Madharry	Respond to of 78748

funny . i just spoke to my wife about borders today as she laments at times that there isnt one where we live now. I asked her today whether Borders was that much better than B&N . she said not really but she particularly found the store in Madison WI inviting. She, by the way , love a chain thats owned by urban outfitters but the name escapes me right now. So based on her fondness for Borders its probably a long term buy.

To: James Clarke who wrote (27868)	8/27/2007 10:31:44 AM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78748

OK, I will ask the question: "At what price do real value investors sell?" Let me clarify. I am mostly Buffettology investor. For me selling is simple: I buy when I expect 15% conservative annual return, I sell when expected return drops to ~5%. (No, it's not 10% rise in price... ;)). But what about the REAL (TM) value investments. Let's say I buy company A for a book value. When do I sell it? At 1.5 book? At 2x book? How about company B that I bought for 1x cash? Do I sell it at 2xcash? 3x? Let's assume for now that companies A and B are cigar butts and we have no expectations that they will turn around and become great companies earning tons of cash. When would you sell? Let's try to keep this discussion thread somewhat on-topic without branching to specific companies/areas, other investment strategies, etc. :) Just to start, I think the goal would be to sell at 2x book and maybe 2x-3x cash. But why should I believe the company would reach these levels if it's a cigar butt? ;)

To: James Clarke who wrote (27868)	8/29/2007 6:13:03 AM
From: Madharry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78748

What is the rush to buy retailers jim? why is this a good time to own them? it seems to me like the consumer has to be getting tapped out- the triple whammy of increased energy prices, not being able to use the home as piggy bank, arm resets, not to mention the number of people carrying 2 mortgages, and rising unemployment in all things connected to real estate have to affect retailers for a couple of years I would think. If anything, would it not make sense to look for a retailer who is expanding strongly internationally? any ideas there?