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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (239984)	8/27/2007 10:54:29 PM
From: Wharf Rat	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

LOL. Eccentric as ever. But actually, unless you can show me 86M BPD, oil peaked in 5/05. Hansen thinks like you do about PO and CO2, having recently come to discover peak oil. It's one of the few things he is wrong about. Most of the change in CO2 was from burning oil, not coal. Burning roughly half our oil increased CO2 from 240 -> 390 ppm. If we get the rest out, CO2 will be at 540. (Then there is the coal left to go thru.) Hansen himself says we need to stop it at 450.... The global community must aim to restrict any further global warming to less than 1 °C above the temperature in 2000. This implies a CO2 limit of about 450 parts per million or less. Such scenarios require almost immediate changes to get energy and greenhouse gas emissions onto a fundamentally different path. climateprogress.org I need to write him. ==== reserves have doubled too over those decades.... hee hee hee; a trick of OPEC called phantom reserves. Do you trust your gvt to tell you the truth? Assuming the answer is no, why would you trust the Saudi gvt to be honest with us? == Sudden revisions One of the main reasons is that in the 1980s OPEC decided to switch to a quota production system based on the size of reserves. The larger the reserves a country said it had the more it could pump. The more it could pump the more money it could make. As a result in 1985 Kuwait revised its reserve estimates by 50% overnight. It was soon followed by United Arab Emirates, Iran, and Iraq. In 1988 Saudi Arabia became the last to join the revised reserve estimates party, adding a whopping 88bn barrels. news.bbc.co.uk more europe.theoildrum.com Oh; Ghawar is depleting at 8%, Cantarell at 20, Burgin can't recall off the top of my head, but several years ago. And the one supposed to push peak back to ought 10? Kazakhstan suspends Kashagan oilfield The consortium has put off the original startup of the world's biggest oilfield discovery in 30 years to the second half of 2010 from an original target of 2005. uk.biz.yahoo.com They miss Borat. (My cousin, eh?) At least I'll give you points for not saying "abiotic". He(Matt Simmons)told EnergyTechStocks.com that in another year or so the world will wake up and say – in Simmons’ words – “Oh, damn. We peaked in May 2005.” Message 23691037

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (239984)	8/28/2007 1:27:45 AM
From: Nadine Carroll	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

You would do better to use a scientific and numerate mind to figure out what has happened, what is happening and what will happen. Don't bother counting how many people think something then copy them if you are in the 25% minority of Americans but the rest of the world thinks something different. The Global Warming hysterics don't want anyone to examine the science too carefully; they might conclude that the science was weak. That's why the BBC tells us every day that the science is settled! settled! & everbody knows that there is an absolutely proven mechanism for how more anthopogenic CO2 makes the earth warmer - proven! proven! Meantime climate scientists won't release their raw data, so somebody had to reverse engineer the numbers to prove that NASA's US climate data had a Y2K bug (the irony) and the warmest decade in the US in the 20th cen was the 1930s, not the 1990s, as had been so loudly and so often proclaimed. Don't ask awkward questions like why CO2 kept going up in the 1930s even as the Depression lowered man-made carbon emissions by 30%. Don't notice that rising CO2 lags warming periods, not the other way around like Al Gore tells us. Now I don't know if you're right about sliding into a new Ice Age in 2037 but I give you as much chance of being right as the globalwarmers. In 25 years, when the promised catastrophe fails to materialize, this will look like another Salem Witch Trials hysteria. That is, by those who remember at all.