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Strategies & Market Trends : Ride the Tiger with CD -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (90800)	9/6/2007 2:46:09 PM
From: Condor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 312944

pls define "other assets"

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (90800)	9/6/2007 2:49:35 PM
From: Canuck Dave	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 312944

Well, that's the million dollar question, isn't it? Gold will go up, but will things associated with it follow? Best answer I've seen to that is an article on Kitco a few weeks ago to watch what the Fed does, not what it says. If the liquidity spigots open, buy anything. Liquidity spigots not open, keep cash. Until we get an idea which side of the mouth Bernanke is speaking from, play it cautious. Sounds like a plan. Lots of caution on the tape right now, but that could ultimately be bullish. Who knows? We're making this stuff up as we go. That's part of the fun. Market's new every day. CD

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (90800)	9/6/2007 2:49:51 PM
From: philv	Respond to of 312944

I will pick "B" over the longer term, although some assets may correct, like housing which was in a bubble. I have faith in the C.B.s to do everything in their power to keep inflating, as they have always done.

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (90800)	9/6/2007 2:55:55 PM
From: Zincman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 312944

Lower gold might not be out of the question either. zm

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (90800)	9/6/2007 2:57:07 PM
From: tyc:>	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 312944

FWIW my opinion is A..Higher gold price AND other asset inflation. (inescapable in view of declining value of fiat currencies) (How do they say it in french? plus ca change plus la meme chose)

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (90800)	9/6/2007 2:57:52 PM
From: bull_dozer	Respond to of 312944

A) Higher gold price and other assets inflation

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (90800)	9/6/2007 3:01:38 PM
From: RJA_	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 312944

>>Can I ask for some opinions on this thread. In general, for the next several years, do you believe in: A) Higher gold price and other assets inflation or B) Higher gold price and other assets deflation IMHO: Inflation and deflation: 1. Inflation: What you need will get more expensive -- energy/food. 2. Deflation: Other stuff may deflate, or only go up marginally. Gold/Silver are a function of currency destruction -- a means of storing value. If folks perceive thats all thats really left, we could get a nice run. If they are monetized again, could increase by powers of 10. However, consider this very unlikely as world economy requires flexibility in currencies -- but also discipline. A non depreciable store of value is needed.

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (90800)	9/6/2007 3:02:25 PM
From: Proud Deplorable	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 312944

C- a revolution

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (90800)	9/6/2007 3:05:17 PM
From: kidl	Respond to of 312944

"A" for me. Sub prime issue will pass and Chinindia will keep world economies humming.

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (90800)	9/6/2007 3:12:57 PM
From: Sultan	Respond to of 312944

B - if it is ever going to be that clearcut..

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (90800)	9/6/2007 3:19:38 PM
From: kacy_in_LA	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 312944

A is the historically correct answer, with gold badly lagging other hard assets.

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (90800)	9/6/2007 3:21:50 PM
From: WalterWhite	Respond to of 312944

Claude - most markets/consumers have no idea of what is going on in the US housing market, nor do they care. In USD terms, all commodities will move higher in the months, years ahead. POG up Energy up Metals up Soft commodities up JMHO, Globe

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (90800)	9/6/2007 3:22:02 PM
From: kathtoo	Respond to of 312944

Higher price for pm's and oil and food, lower prices in real estate, electronics, clothing, and higher unemployment. It's going to be a messy situation for years to come, imho

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (90800)	9/6/2007 3:22:05 PM
From: Condor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 312944

I would expect A to prevail. In the west, there will be a huge transfer of hoarded wealth from boomers to children that will be spent on material consumption and material investment IMO. In the east, the youth numbers will continue to swell and demands on consumption will escalate exponentially. Beneficiaries of this will obviously be energy and raw materials. In the west, immigration from the east will homogenize and renew declining birth rates. In summary...full speed ahead.

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (90800)	9/6/2007 3:31:50 PM
From: Bat Man	Respond to of 312944

I'll take (A) housing may lag for a while though

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (90800)	9/6/2007 3:33:03 PM
From: Condor	Respond to of 312944

When you get time, we'd be interested in your thoughts also. Cheers C

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (90800)	9/6/2007 3:34:39 PM
From: grusum	Respond to of 312944

just a guess, but... B first, then A..

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (90800)	9/6/2007 3:51:03 PM
From: lbs1989	Respond to of 312944

Dear Claude, I vote for "A" and Weimar Inflation. Best regards,

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (90800)	9/6/2007 6:43:51 PM
From: UPTICK	Respond to of 312944

My "vision" is: Gold and silver "up" in US$ terms, but is it ( and will it be...) in Euro or Swiss franc or Yen or pounds? All other industrial commodities "up" to feed the needs for China people, Indians, Mexicans, Brazilians who all become consumers of manufactured goods. Housing in America is just a small local market... So, I will go with A) But WTHDIK I am half blind!

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (90800)	9/6/2007 6:47:20 PM
From: koan	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 312944

Hi Claude. That is a tough question. Having read prognosticators for almost 30 years now, I find most get it wrong, most of the time. So I have learned to rely on myself taking bits and pieces from the pundits. I can be as wrong as anyone (as EC woud say-lol). It seems we humans are not nearly as good at predicting as we think. Having said that, when I am trying to solve a problem, or understand something sort of out of my reach I look for a way around the question. I look for clues I can feel more sure about. So what are some of the economic variables which would effect your question which most of us feel pretty sure about? 1) I think we are all pretty sure there is no political will to do what Volker did in 1980 i.e. raise the fed funds rate so high mortgage interest rates went to 21%. 2) What happened when the sub prime debacle caused worldwide markets to go into freefall? Every major country on earth added massive liquidity to the world financial system. Europe even more than the US and even Canada put in 1.6 billion. 3) For the first time in the history of the world, the world economies are not only connected, but regulated and coordinated to a very large degree. And the world's traders, using monster computers to crunch supply and demand realities and modern theories of ecoomics, keep things sort of honest by buying undvalued financial instruments and selling overvlued financial instruments. 4) For the first time in just the last couple of decades hundreds of millions of people are not starving and the standard of living has risen spectacularly in 3rd world countries. So in conclusion, what it looks like to me is that the world will "err" on the side of inflation and prevent deflation at any cost. Bernanke's helicopter" analogy was actually quite telling. The world's economist's will try to manage a "controlled inflation" . Just enough to prevent deflation and keep the world's economies growing. So we will have the normal bumps and dips and we will also lose control from time to time, like Russia, east asia and Mexico did recently, but the world will keep growing enexorably and demand pressures on all comodities will continue going forward. This does not mean that some nations cannot lose control from time to time. The dollar could drop 50%, but by and large the world will move forward discounting global thermonuclear war-lol. Cheers,

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (90800)	9/7/2007 8:57:33 AM
From: tyc:>	Respond to of 312944

edit sorry !

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (90800)	9/8/2007 6:29:40 AM
From: TheBusDriver	Respond to of 312944

A. The bozo bus will get bigger and bigger and bigger....

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (90800)	9/8/2007 6:41:35 PM
From: E. Charters	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 312944

You can get A, after or during a war, but between 1929 and 1934 we saw B. When Roosevelt fixed the price of gold he did so as a method of wage and price control. In other words he wanted inflation without causing dollar collapse. Fixing the dollar to gold allowed the dollar to be as good as gold and gold not be able to buy too many dollars, as it had tended to. This in turn allowed the printing of dollars which seemed to keep their value. An enormous trade advantage for the US. The sleight of hand was he disallowed redemption of gold. A form of theft. Fiat without tears. No wonder he had a perpetual smile. He was part crocodile. EC<:-}