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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold and Silver Juniors, Mid-tiers and Producers -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tyc:> who wrote (48816)	9/10/2007 9:46:47 AM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78421

<To change one's investment strategy because of a perceived change in the climate of risk, is a form of market timing. It just doesn't work. Diversification and quality are the only safeguards for the long term investor.> I don't know if the two are totally separate to be honest... for instance my PM holdings (now) are based on the future demise of the dollar (market timing)... they used to be much more based on value (mining sector 3-5 years ago) but much of the sector has reflated, at least to some extent. IMHO it's all a no brainer, but still... it's market timing no? DAK

To: tyc:> who wrote (48816)	9/11/2007 12:14:08 AM
From: TH	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78421

Hello tyc:> This is a reply to your public message to me and your pm. I admit that I try to be a bit of a market timer. Again I'm going to appear to be a windbag with my answer, so I'll do my best to keep it concise. I make my selections in equities prepared for the worst outcome. As a rule I select based on strong fundamentals (or potential strong fundamentals in the case of something like junior miners). Next I look to see if TA supports the direction I'm interested in. Next, I absolutely try to time my entry point to get the maximum possible discount (pricing errors). And, my real strength is patience. I can wait a year to buy a stock, and I do. I also have a self-imposed money management system that prevents me from shooting myself. This is maybe too strict when I short, but I have extremely prohibitive rules for shorting, as infinity risk scares me and I'm a self-proclaimed <chicken short>. I keep an excessive amount of free cash available when I short, usually equal to the difference of the current value of the stock subtracted from its high over the past year plus an additional 20%(for madness from the street, which unfortunately happens). I'm up over 90% this year in my trading account by following these rules, but I have only nine positions open (counting bullion as one position) and I've closed six positions (all shorts, five big winners and one very small loser). I might get the timing wrong, and that happens. If I am happy with the FA I may elect to wait it out, or I might sell in a heartbeat and live to fight another day. I think trying to time something like junior miners is difficult. I know that I cannot do it, so the few juniors I buy are always with a two year hold expected when I purchase. One last point. Trying to guess the movement of the general market is very difficult, and I don't put much energy into this. The few times I have tried to do this have been unproductive (the one failed short was an attempt to time the general market short). Recognizing an attractive entry for a sector is possible, and the returns are worth the risk if the stocks you select have solid FA in the event you have to wait for the market to agree with you. I don't mind the waiting if I'm confident I'm on the right path. Good Trading and thanks for the positive comments you sent me by PM about our exchange. TH