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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: energyplay who wrote (22345)	9/13/2007 2:38:35 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217836

a HK-based USD 2-billion manager just said this vis e-mail "When Wayne Angell,Larry Kudlow,and Marty Feldstein all agree on something you can be certain it's bad policy.I love the way all the senile failures of the past have arisen to compete for the prize of 'who can debase a reserve currency without feeling guilty about it'. Perhaps others aren't worried about China but the authourities certainly are and the 5.2M new retail accounts that opened in July rang alarms in Beijing. Screws are really tightening now and it's about to get worse,so fasten your seatbelt. WMT (10% US retail sales) is at 52 week lows while China is at 52 week highs.This is akin to your stock price being at all time highs despite your biggest customer (20% of exports)signalling he's got a real problem…."

To: energyplay who wrote (22345)	9/13/2007 7:59:13 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 217836

EP, this just in my e-mail in-tray, from moolah manager pal with new fund on whose 3-men board i sit: I’ve just attended a 2 day conf on asian hedge funds, its 10th anniversary in hk. Some summaries to share with our global friends pureheart, one of better china equity hf says that since he’s started the fund 12 yrs ago, today, he’s most scared; he compares today’s china prices to 1997 hk prices. He’s 90% cash, fyi consensus view: there will be a clear devaluation of the us$ as fed will cut rates and rest of asian cbanks raises rates >> buy gold (who would’ve thot I’d say that) never seen more Indians at a conference, reflecting the rise of india ! asian hf are still 50% in long/short equities vs 80% 3 yrs ago; the short is a very popular deception to hoodwink investors to pay the 2/20 fees; they are all long only as cost and effectiveness of hedging is very poor. So they only way they hedge is to be long cash (anyone of us can do that); other strategies have more value I think aug redemptions due to hiccup wont show up for another 45 days so cant tell what will happen; although, every asian hf manager said they are either up or flat for the mth of aug; although, I think us and European hf will suffer worst redemptions because asian equities have indeed been shielded from sub-prime; but this is not from talent of hf managers.. just dumb luck not to make fun of my industry, but indeed I see no greater bandwidth in hf community than what I see in general population. Sure, the top 10% are worth buying and the rest are rubbish. New question for the braintrust: With us$ depreciation to escalate, whats best way to play this, particularly in asia ? I suggest long aussie $ and long gold.. any better ideas out there?