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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker, Moneytalk and Marketimer -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: samule who wrote (1040)	9/20/2007 12:44:40 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 2121

"As you say David, Kirk and others say they have figured out Brinker's model yet none of them ever refuted the prospect of a secular bear market. Maybe they don't really have Bob's model figured out after all." Is that "Bobspeak" or was it meant as a joke? How do you refute a prospect? I liked what Greenspan had to say about how his saying there was a "30% chance of a recession" was misreported to be he was "predicting" a recession. Would you agree that Brinker seems to be an expert at "Bobspeak" where like Greenspan he doesn't make predictions but others later hear "as we talked about on the show, this happened..." and believe he is prescient. It is a good gig... pretending to predict the future and I bet it has helped sell many newsletters. Bobspeak: Up to 50% or more" to say "zero to infinity" was my all time favorite.

To: samule who wrote (1040)	9/20/2007 12:52:05 PM
From: Elmer Phud	Respond to of 2121

Samule It didn't really matter one way or another. Exactly but when their intention is to bash then they must grasp at straws. In all fairness, I think it can be said that Bob's advice on individual selections hasn't been all that great at times but I would never take that advice anyway so it doesn't matter one bit to me. I think we've established how Bob arrives at his Put/Call ratios but we don't know what weight it carries in his timing model. That and valuations based on projected P/E of the S&P500, that's about all I know. Do you have any insight into how he derives any of his other indicators?

To: samule who wrote (1040)	9/20/2007 1:26:52 PM
From: Boca_PETE	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 2121

I remember reading in a recent Marketimer letter that secular trends are not relevant because all of Bob's market calls are made on a cyclical basis. Message 23606696 I'm very happy having added to my domestic and international stock market mutual fund holdings below Bob's buy point on down to the day the S&P touched 1380 intraday during the recent correction. I wonder if we get a re-test of that area before the end of October. You'd never know a re-test was in our future given the recent reaction to the 1/2% FED rate cuts. P

To: samule who wrote (1040)	9/20/2007 1:49:23 PM
From: davidk555	Respond to of 2121

samule, samule, samule. You understand the point don't you? I know you do but I will repeat it for you. The issue I have is not with declaring the end of the secular bear market, or even retroactively designating the end of it to last year, or even that it was buried on the bottom of the second page in Marktimer when it had been a headline issue for so long. No, the point is why not discuss it on Moneytalk? Euphud thought it was because you had just announced it to Marketimer subscribers and you would bring it up after the newsletter subscribers had a chance to review it. But that was months ago now wasn't it. Just because you may be embarassed by the call does not mean you should shirk away from it. That has been the issue, and most of the criticism that has ever been lodged over the years. It is not so much the bad recommendations, wrong predictions or such. It's the way the bad ones are handled. Advisors make mistakes all the time, some of them just choose to address them head on, and some even explain the rational as to why they think the mistake was made. People respect that and are very forgiving when that happens as nobody is perfect. Others try to bury the mistakes them and act as if they never happened. That is where most of the criticism has fallen througout these years. Ok folks, that's my last post for a few days probably. If I have a chance I will respond soon, but don't count on it. -D