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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Wexler who wrote (28154)	9/20/2007 3:36:53 PM
From: deeno	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78523

"I don't think you can be in ANY retail at this point, even the chains with some international exposure" Im not sure i understand your logic on this and Intl cos. If we stop buying "stuff"...Most stuff is made for us somewhere else. so THEY arent going to sell much "stuff" that means that they are likely to stop making more "stuff" Not making more "stuff" means you dont need all that raw material. Not to mentionm all those $1 an hour employees. Hm. Dont need that new building/plant. guess we can forgo that cement and steel, What the HELL are we doing with all this GD oil all over the place. If you dont sell it today you smell it tomarrow. Cut prices MAKE em buy........ Ok oil $30, Inflation, what inflation? material gluts everywhere. Whats left? Food. Food should be good.

To: Bill Wexler who wrote (28154)	9/20/2007 6:00:36 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78523

Bill Wexler. What concerns me is that I see some of your points, and I can come up with countervailing points, but I don't really understand your points at deep enough level to really "get" it. I mean it's like Texas hold-em or something where you've concluded you're now ALL in. More correctly, all out --per your website: "As of 9/19/2007 ..and for the first time in 25 years, I have liquidated every one of my long positions in U.S. stocks, using the 50bps rate cut inspired rally on 9/18 as an opportunity to get out. I am now net short, with a long position in GLD (proxy ETF for gold bullion) as a currency hedge." For someone with your stock market experience, time on SI, (and good looks (according to the website) -g-), to make this kind of move --- this is somebody who has really, really got a strong opinion. Scary strong. Scary to me that you might be right, not only right about this sector (retail), but maybe right about the market in total. As I say though, my concern is that I just don't "get" it, don't have such strong an opinion or view or understanding that things are, or are going to be, so bleak such that the most beneficial or reasonable bet is to be entirely out of the market or short. ------------- I've now glanced at ERTS and ATVI. Also Gamestop (GME). The stocks are very expensive - near highs. Too expensive for me to buy. High valuation says to me though that investors are betting video games will do well, perhaps during the big holiday selling season. And so that encourages me to stick with BBY who I expect will get a good share of the business. These big tv's are coming down in price, it seems to me. And they're at all different sizes and price points, thus broadening the market for them. They almost seem to be must have items. Well, for people who have jobs and can pay their mortgages. The mortgage money tappers who bought Hummers and flat panels have already bought and are done. It's the rest of country now. (I hope.) It doesn't seem to be that these retailers have trapped themselves. BBY, BBBY have little debt, lots of cash. That could mean special dividends, stock buybacks. I assume these managements have some sense where if they see or suspect they are overbuilding, they stop. Of course, jmo, and I've been wrong many, many times.