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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: deeno who wrote (28158)	9/22/2007 1:12:40 AM
From: 8bits	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78523

Recession, recession, recession. Thats your call (it seems). Raw materials drop, energy drop, inflation drop, gold drop, competition up, retail destroyed. A more normal yield curve makes long bonds a tough buy. New adminstration makes drugs a tough buy. Foods I think ADM, MON, CAG, your commodies market......INTL I dont think so. Maybe the dollar would bail you out. I can't speak for Bill but effectively I view being short retailers and long commodities as being roughly equivalent to being short the US and long the developing world. Consider that China 15 years ago was net oil exporter and is now the second largest importer of oil after the US. China's growth in copper consumption last year exceeded the all of the copper consumed in the US in the same period. I believe it is now possible for the US to have a mild recession without the rest of the world joining it (save for perhaps Mexico) There is a tremendous change occurring globally in terms of shift of economic and political power. If we have a severe global recession I don't see why food producers (and companies that supply that market..) would not also be affected. Much of the growth in grain consumption is tied to an increase in consumption of ethanol and the greater consumption of meat in developing countries. Consumption for both would decline with a global recession.