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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker, Moneytalk and Marketimer -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sweetsue who wrote (1175)	9/24/2007 4:21:07 PM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2121

"I was not referring to the numbers of years. I was referring to the numbers of times he has been 'right' rather than 'wrong.'" You said "50% of the time," but if you really meant "50% of the times," fine, lets do it that way, but we need to do the analysis for every issue of Marketimer, because he had to make a decision about whether to be bullish or bearish for every issue. "* Brinker completely missed October 1987 Black Monday" That's right, he went bearish AFTER Black Monday, and the effect of that on the bottom line is reflected in the three years 1988 to 1990 which I cited. Also, I was talking about the record of his current model, but if you want to go back before that, then we should include ALL the data, going back to 1981, not just to 1987. "* Brinker predicted a stock market 'countertrend rally' in October, 2000 that never materialized. "* Brinker predicted a stock market 'countertrend rally' in January, 2001 that never materialized. "* Brinker predicted a stock market 'countertrend rally' in March, 2001 that never materialized." That's why I said he was only about half right from 2000 to 2003, but notice that I only added one year of being right to the total, so in reality I credited him for being only one-third right. (Even with the maximum QQQ recommendation for aggressive investors, he was still about one-third out of the market.) "And Math Junkie, shall we talk about his most recent 'wrong' buying opportunities that he gave this March and July?" Good thing you put "wrong" in quotation marks, because it surely is a misnomer. The one in March wasn't wrong, because he was right to rate the market "attractive for purchase" at that level. The fact that the buy didn't execute is irrelevant, since he did NOT predict that the market would go there. We don't know yet whether the one in July will turn out to be right or wrong. That depends on whether the bull market continues. And the fact that the market went below his buy point is irrelevant, because it only went a few percentage points below, and it recovered quickly and strongly.

To: sweetsue who wrote (1175)	9/24/2007 8:20:55 PM
From: octavian	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2121

SweetSue said: <<Even so, you seem to have missed a few of his really bad calls: * Brinker completely missed October 1987 Black Monday>> --Well, it's almost the 20th anniversary of that one. Are you going to continue bringing it up even after it is no longer part of his 20-year record? Do you think it you go back 20 years you can find any errors by Buffett? LOL If you are analyzing a mutual fund manager, how pertinent to you think it would be if you found he had a real bad year 20 or 21 years ago? <<* Brinker predicted a stock market "countertrend rally" in October, 2000 that never materialized. * Brinker predicted a stock market "countertrend rally" in January, 2001 that never materialized. * Brinker predicted a stock market "countertrend rally" in March, 2001 that never materialized.>> --Do you really think it's legitimate to label each one of those a separate error? I personally think any objective person would consider them all part of one disastrous call. Do you understand why someone might think you are going out of your way to find things to criticize? Do you think it's really fair or legitimate to count each one of those as an error, while at the same time ignoring all of the successful gift-horse calls? <<And Math Junkie, shall we talk about his most recent "wrong" buying opportunities that he gave this March and July?>> --Hmmmm. Strange. You have the exact same misconception about these calls as my blonde basher friend. Maybe you've been spending too much time at her basher blog, where she is free to erase any post she doesn't like.