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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pcyhuang who wrote (28332)	10/1/2007 9:09:39 AM
From: John Carragher	Respond to of 78465

posting at finance.yahoo.com has won a 4 Star rating. i have no idea how those ratings come about.. but spam ads get four and five star ratings.. you know the readers are not assigning those stars.

To: pcyhuang who wrote (28332)	10/1/2007 9:44:12 AM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78465

pcyhuan, while I understand that "contrarian alert" was a buy recommendation it's really hard to tell from you post only. I looked in your markitsource link you provided. Only the tranches better than A have recovered anything below pretty much trades at or near the lows. Even now some AA tranches still trade at 80c on the $. have you calculated how much E*Trade has to write off if they have to market-market their mortgage book at these prices? from you letter: Quote: "It showed $690 million in unrealized losses in securities held on its books at the end of June, a vast majority in mortgages." But do you realize how much the mortgage market has changed since then? At the end of June, the mortgage market as represented by the ABX indices was in a very distressed state, with many series of mortgages having locked market prices -- offers were locked on the bid, no spread existed between the two. But have you noticed the sharp improvements in the liquidity and pricing of the mortgage market since then? markit.com

To: pcyhuang who wrote (28332)	11/10/2007 3:52:19 AM
From: Madharry	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78465

Wow you seem to be good at picking targets of SEC investigations: ETrade (ETFC - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating) slumped late Friday after the online broker said it expected added writedowns and disclosed a probe by the Securities and Exchange Commission. The company said it has seen continued declines in the fair value of its $3 billion asset-backed securities portfolio, predominantly within ABS collateralized debt obligations and second-lien securities. The total exposure to those instruments as of Sept. 30 was approximately $450 million, including about $50 million of AAA-rated asset-backed CDOs that were downgraded to below investment grade. ETrade expects the decreases in fair value to result in further securities writedowns in the fourth quarter, but the company believes it will remain well-capitalized based on regulatory standards. "Management believes the additional deterioration observed since September 30 will likely result in writedowns that exceed the previous expectations included in the Company's 2007 earnings outlook updated on October 17, and investors should no longer expect these earnings levels to be achieved," ETrade said in a statement. "Actual securities-related losses will depend on future market developments, including the potential for future downgrades by rating agencies, which are extremely difficult to predict in this environment. Accordingly, management believes it is no longer beneficial to provide earnings expectations for the remainder of the year." Also, the company said the SEC started an informal inquiry on Oct. 17 of its loan and securities portfolios. ETrade is cooperating with the investigation. Shares of E*Trade were plunging 13.3% to $7.45 in extended trading. ( personally, I question whether etrade can survive independently at this juncture. does anyone speculate what they are worth as a takeover candidate?)