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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Umunhum who wrote (91382)	10/2/2007 3:32:44 PM
From: GVTucker	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206125

Umunhum, RE: I think $20 is adequate to defend purchasing a December 2011 contract from margin call. I don’t think that we will see the December 2011 contracts trade at $53 ever again. All the news that I have been reading over the last two years has been bullish for crude prices. I can’t remember when I last heard an intelligent argument for lower crude prices going forward. I’m at the point where it is not a question of whether oil prices are heading higher. It is when will they break $100 and how high are they going to go? If you haven't heard an intelligent argument for lower crude prices going forward then you aren't listening. I'm not saying lower prices are a done deal, but higher prices aren't a done deal, either. Crude demand in the US declined last year. It isn't out of the realm of possibilities to see other countries exhibit a similar demand pattern. If you want to see a detailed picture of how crude prices could go lower, CERA is a good outfit that is bearish on crude prices.

To: Umunhum who wrote (91382)	10/2/2007 5:10:48 PM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206125

>>>COSWF, SU, CNQ, ECA, NXY, and PWE<<< Is COSWF marginable?

To: Umunhum who wrote (91382)	10/3/2007 9:10:34 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Respond to of 206125

am on very little margin and therefore have the ability to defend my oil futures contracts all the way down to the 30’s by transferring money over from my stock account. the problem is, you will be selling into weakness. if crude falls just 20 dollars, as it can easily do (it fell $30 last year), all those stocks you mention will tank. so you will be selling out of them at the worst possible time in order to meet margin calls. also, by selling your stocks, you will of course be reducing your overall exposure to the sector just when it becomes a screaming bargain. me, i'd rather have the ability to maximize my exposure when the sector is weak--it is simply buying low and selling high. the only way to achieve that is to keep some truly dry powder on the side. just moving from 40% to 60% allocation once a year (and then back to 40% when prices are high) when there is one of the regular vicious selloffs provides a nice kick to the PF.