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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Slagle who wrote (23426)	10/2/2007 10:05:21 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217800

in the mean time, this just in my e-mail box, from the front line trenches ... Had a long conversation yesterday with a large supplier to Walmart and others. They do a couple of billion in business per year. He noted that Chinese manufacturers are all hitting the wall in regards to profitability. That is, they now have to pass along price increases. He says that passing along price increases is doable for new products. But for legacy products, US retailers are refusing to accept higher prices. But Chinese manufacturers are now refusing to sell new product unless it is a large portion of their total sales. For marginal buyers of their products, they are simply refusing to seel anymore product. He thinks this will come to a head in a few months, and that everyone is going to have to shoulder some of the increases in costs. - The Chinese manufacturers, the distrbutors, the retailers and the consumers. Inflation may go down in a couple of years, but it is going to have to go up in the next year or two irrespective - unless the US consumer sharply reduces its buying, which is the other side of the coin. In any case, p-e's of 15 aren't so cheap for US stocks if profit margins are going to decline substantially in the coming year or two.... I somehow doubt that that is factored in to current stock prices. But who knows, I've been consistently wrong for nearly a year now...... Mac DeleteReplyForwardSpamMove... Previous \| Next \| Back to Messages Save Message Text \| Full Headers

To: Slagle who wrote (23426)	10/2/2007 10:18:26 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217800

More 'good news' on HK-based wealth creation ... via e-mail will the good news not end?! simply too wonderful. Even better from Lehman this AM Paul Louie had made a good call on HK property. In his latest 64-pages report, Paul is getting even more bullish - fundamentals are stronger than 1996-97. Compared with the 1996-97 cycle, HK now has: 1) a higher integration withmainland China and a larger pool of capital; 2) 48% fewer housing completions p.a. (avg 12,428 units in 2007-10 vs 23,919 units in 1996-99); 3) 10% higher private household income; & 4) a 50% reduction in mortgage rates fr 9.0% to 4.5%. >>> Home prices to rise 45% by end-08E! We expect home prices in the next 15 months to rise another 45%. We believe that as negative real rates and asset appreciation become consensus view, NAV discounts should give way to premiums. We raise our developers' share price targets by 24% on average. Our top picks in the developer space remain SHKP, Sino Land and Cheung Kong, all with 20%-plus potential upside. We have the highest numbers on the street, Pls let me know if I can send you the report. Price Targets raised 24% on average * Cheung Kong: HK$133.20 =>HK$158.00, raised 19% * SHKP: HK$131.50 to HK$157.25, raised 20% * Sino Land : HK$21.76=>HK$26.40, raised 21% * Henderson Land : HK$50.10=>HK$61.70, raised 23% * NWD: HK$17.60=>HK$24.65, raised 40% * HLP: HK$17.60=>HK$21.90, raised 24% * Wharf: HK$44.00=>HK$49.60, raised 13% * Great Eagle: HK$35.80=>HK$40.00, raised 12% * Hysan: HK$25.90=>HK$30.60, raised 18% * HK Land : US$4.65=>US$5.35, raised 15%

To: Slagle who wrote (23426)	10/2/2007 10:32:05 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 217800

my e-mail box is simply over-flowing with good news Research Flash Investment Strategy Emerging equities will bubble for a while longer Private Banking The current euphoria in China stock markets is spreading far and wide. Judging from the flows of funds from investors in the developed countries into emerging market funds, it is fairly clear where most of that money is heading. Eastwards. The euphoria is not entirely unjustified. China's contribution to global GDP growth this year will equal that of the US, for the first time in recent history. At the corporate level this growth is mirrored in record earnings growth across Asia. Equity market analysts have upgraded their earnings forecasts for Asian blue-chip companies by the highest margins in many years. The problem is that equity market valuations in many Asian emerging markets, as valued in terms of price-earnings ratios, are fast reaching the outer limits beyond which they can no longer be easily justified. In short, we are approaching 'bubble' territory in many Asian equity markets. This means inflows of capital will keep pushing up valuations for a while. Until either inflation forces interest rates higher and/or borrowers start defaulting on their loans setting the stage for the next recession. But that will not happen soon. Asian central banks collectively control upward of USD 3 trillion in reserves between them. This is a very strong buffer to keep a systemic debt crisis at bay. Indeed all countries sitting alongside China are benefiting the most. Japanese firms are exporting high-tech capital equipment to China, Korean heavy industrial goods manufacturers are seeing a boom in the growth of their exports (exceeding that of the technology sector, for the first time in many years) to China, Taiwanese PC makers are seeing firm order books well into 2008. And so on. So the three investment mantras currently being chanted by many fund managers across the globe are those of 'China', 'commodities' and 'de-coupling'. Commodity exporters in the emerging world as far flung as Russia, Indonesia and Latin America are being dragged up by China's voracious demand for their mineral and agricultural wealth. Brazil's GDP growth, for example, will this year register over 6%; this is double the average recorded over the last 5 years. CSIB's economists have found evidence that Asia (excluding Japan) is generating a new consumer impulse which is 'de-coupling' the region from US consumer demand. Though there is scant evidence as yet that US demand is actually collapsing. It is not surprising therefore that emerging equity markets led by Asia, measured by the MSCI emerging markets index, have risen over 25% from their August 2007 lows. And the recovery started even before the Fed rate cut happened (China 'A' equities saw no dip at all). This is better performance than during the 30 days after the Fed cut the Fed funds rate in 1998, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 23.2%. And the Nasdaq index kept inflating to form the technology bubble which ran till March 2000. The post-1998 tech bubble scenario is being repeated now, in the form of an emerging markets equity bubble, we have several months more for the bubble to expand further. Before it bursts. ------------------- Fixed Income: * Tesco Plc's interim results 2007/8 above expectations * S&P's upgraded Czech Republic's rating to A with stable outlook * S&P's placed Kazakhstan's BBB rating on Watch negative FX: * USD firmer on short covering as slates are cleared ahead of the important ADP report & ISM services tonight and Friday's NFP. * US pending home sales plunged to a record low but homebuilders rose on perception the worst could be over. * Further jawboning comments from EU officials on EUR's strength but the US employment is key for the USD. RBA left rates unchanged at 6.50% as expected. Equity: * Asian equity markets will benefit from fund flows from CIC and QDIIs * TELEKOMUNIKASI INDONESIA (HOLD): Target price breached; Downgrade to HOLD rating * MITSUBISHI UFJ FINANCIAL GROUP INC. (BUY): Adjusting per share data to reflect stock split * GOOGLE (BUY): Google has several near-term drivers, but we expect volatility to remain high

To: Slagle who wrote (23426)	10/3/2007 12:56:16 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217800

Part of the lower mortgage standards were driven by a desire to increase home ownership among minorities, and avoid charge of discrimination. This started in the 1990s. The other part was a desire to create a boom to offset any effects of the 9/11 attacks, which happen in addition to the 'normal' stock market bust of 2000. I expect that decisions were reached to run the risk of bad loans instead of the reality of a slowing economy. ****** We now have a large segment of the economy and a number of voters strongly for low interest rates and inflation. Might be considered similar to the advocacy of the free coinage of silver in the late 1890s. I am not sure what this will mean politically.