Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : SiliconInvestor All Stars Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Vosilla who wrote (1438)	10/4/2007 3:35:46 PM
From: Mike Johnston	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1718

I have been waiting for higher rates too. But it is not happening due to Central Bank intervention in the bond market. Unusually low rates are and will be the drivers of inflation and in the future possibly hyperinflation. With 14% and rising ( possibly pushing high teens after last round of CB activism )annual monetary inflation and price inflation close to 10%, long term rates should be at least a double current level, in order to reflect true level of inflation in the economy. This grand experiment in business cycle and market management will end very badly, but we could be as long as 5 years away from the final collapse. In this environment the only certainty is that the prices of gold and commodities will continue to rise and standards of living will plummet, especially for those earning dollars. I don't know what will happen to stocks or bonds, but most likely stocks will be higher. Bonds could be flat for years, but the bondholders will eventually lose most of their investment due to very high inflation.

To: John Vosilla who wrote (1438)	10/5/2007 1:47:05 PM
From: SouthFloridaGuy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1718

Long Island housing update: We're pretty much back to 2004 if you haggle. Problem is 2004 was a bubble. Next 12 months should be nasty as inventories are very high for this time of the year. It's kind of like winter 2005 where inventories didn't decline. That's when you got the beginning of price breaks in the following months through fall of 2006 - albeit from insane levels. In fall of 2006, inventories declined smartly due to low rates and healthy job market - thus price breaks were not great in early 2007 - especially as lending standards were still weak. 2008 should be nasty as the forced selling begins.