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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (36150)	10/7/2007 6:06:20 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95383

Can the market keep going? The $NYSI and $NASI say why not? Market strength has been good since the bottom in August. Currently we do have a number of indications that market sentiment is swinging towards overly bullish. The Investors Intelligence poll and CPC are definitely moving towards worrysome levels for those of us who are bullish like myself. There are also complaints that volume has been light on this rally. I think volume has been light because the rally started during the late summer. Summer months are typically low volume. In addition most of this rally has taken place in the absence of earnings. Volume will pick up with earning starting soon. Can the market continue higher? I think it can for a while. Neither the $NASI nor the $NYSI is so overbought that these summation indexes are showing the market are in definite danger of selling off. Instead they show money continues to funnel into the market. The Summation Index is a proxy that tells the swing trader whether money is flowing into or out of the market. When the Summation Index is in a strong uptrend, it indicates that the bulls are stronger than the bears. In a downtrend, it communicates just the opposite. In addition these weekly charts suggest there is room for further appreciation: siliconinvestor.com RtS

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (36150)	10/8/2007 9:41:48 PM
From: etchmeister	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95383

Etch, One of the problems with the "poor" performance of the SOX is the lack of earnings growth. On the other hand earnings for chips including equipment are far more robust. Here's how it worked in the past: get a sharp downturn; stocks get trashed like there is no tomorrow; back up the truck and load up...that's what the blood thread was all about. But look what happened to global IC sales (over the last three years) - no sharp pull backs although certain segments within the group can do better than other temporary (NAND flash vs DRAM). The pull backs offered opportunity. But now only boring moderate, steady relatively low growth without severe pullbacks. Wonder what the "earnings growth distribution" is of all NASDAQ listed companies; it's probably confined to a number of companies like AAPL and RIMM et al - coincidentally AAPL benefits greatly from chips and probably also RIMM.