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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (24125)	10/15/2007 9:21:03 AM
From: Snowshoe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217840

>>the freight rate's gyration<< I've been wondering at what point transport rates will start to affect various product flows. Anchorage is the busiest air cargo port in the USA, since it is the best refueling stop for US/Asia cargo flights. About half the output of the local Cook Inlet oil field is being refined as jet fuel for local consumption. How long can this go on? What happens when oil prices double? There has to be some point where it makes sense to shift production back to the US. Or else we just stop consuming so much stuff?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (24125)	10/15/2007 9:29:51 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217840

"master liquidity enhancement conduit". Banks agree to buy illiquid paper: amount $100 billion marketwatch.com

To: TobagoJack who wrote (24125)	10/15/2007 3:18:05 PM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217840

Is this dry bulk or container rates, or both ? I don't have any ideas on how to hedge these rates. Maybe buy stock in a marine insurance company, since premiums will tend to track freight charges, and better technology, like weather forecasting, smoke alarms, etc. will tend to reduce shipping losses long term. Longer term - years - container rates should tend to stabalize as the Panama canal expansion is phased in, and many very large new container ships are brought into service. ************* As for something bad being about to happen...I have mixed feelings. World wide global growth is about 4 to 5 %, and may stay in this range for several years. Next problem might be Europe, with high Euro effects. Right now, with oil priced in USD, the high Euro has made oil cheaper, offsetting the loss of exports. But oil is going higher, and export losses due to currency shifts take time to work through. China seems to be having a bit of a bubble in stock and property markets, but a little boom / bust cycle is normal, certainly for HK. China's banks are in better shape, so systemic risk has dropped. Sub-prime in the US is only about 20% solved, but it's not an immediate crisis. Some degree of stagflation is not the end of the world. I don't have a sense of dread. However, it seems that many "obvious bets" for easy money are gone. Buying gold when Gordon Brown was selling, shorting US homebuilders the past 2 years, Canadian energy trusts, Canadian dollars, uranium miners. Canadian dollar were a relatively easy play when they were under parity. At parity, how high is up ? 5%, 10% ? With oil at $85, that's going to have less upside than oil at $60. Maybe we wait, and keep looking for mispriced areas.