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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tenchusatsu who wrote (243091)	10/31/2007 1:38:23 PM
From: pgerassi	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Dear Tench: You better hope its a temporary condition because if it is a capacity one with 4 65nm megafabs, yields must be piss poor. And 45nm won't make it better since they are using double patterning on 65nm equipment. That s why they will deliver 45nm 9-12 months sooner. The cost is that 45nm good dies per megafab per quarter may actually drop. More steps leads to less wafers per month per sqft. And since die sizes aren't going down (more cache and logic transistors), that makes for less dies per month per megafab. And that is before yields winnows it further. High K, metal gates and inherent double patterning losses may make yields quite a bit less. The first two because of inexperience and the last puts a lower cap on yields even with maturity in the rest. All of the above points to increased COGS per salable Intel CPU. Which is why there are hints of a price increase to cover it. A 20% Intel ASP rise would have made AMD's Q3 profitable as AMD would follow suit. Increased mobile share can do both for AMD, increase their ASP because of more higher priced mobile CPUs (and the related components) and the higher unit count could get AMD $400 million more in profits. That the overall unit and revenue marketshare of AMD goes up as well are a bonus. Pete