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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GST who wrote (88483)	11/5/2007 8:51:14 PM
From: starhawke	Respond to of 110194

Damn straight. Nice post.

To: GST who wrote (88483)	11/5/2007 9:42:02 PM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

'Living standards in the US will on average go down and we will buy less -- anybody who has ever lived in a "poor" country will easily explain that when you are poor you don't automatically find people rushing in to sell you things at a discount. What we have implicitly assumed is that as we grow poorer in relative terms, people in other countries will find new ways to subsidize our living standards -- don't hold your breath. People in other countries are doing business with each other -- they have hundreds of millions of their own people to feed and to be clothed and housed and transported and educated -- they have their own markets and they have their own money. Wherever you live, drive to the worst part of town and look around -- do you see gas being sold at a lower price there? Do you see milk being sold at a lower price there? Do you think that somebody who is broke gets a lower interest rate? We have been subsidized these many years -- the subsidies are over.' Awesome post. We have already experienced severe deflationary pressures from the housing bust on a micro level for a good two years already yet everything else keeps going up anyway. The parts of FL down over 50% you don't get any discount on your food, medical or gas bill.. Those of us who see the attempts to plug the gapping holes in the credit contraction and housing crash as fueling further inflationary pressures on the back end of all this are true visionaries.. Certainly the next 6-12 months is the last gasp for the deflation/depression crowd in my view.. Their next hope would on the back end of this cycle once interest rates skyrocket along with metals to incredible heights like in 1980. That could be a very long time..

To: GST who wrote (88483)	11/5/2007 9:56:35 PM
From: Sea Otter	Respond to of 110194

Great post! Although, being the pessimist I am, your scenarios may be too rosy. The world is galloping off the cliff and no one is holding the reins. There are just too many known unknowns and unknown unknowns floating out there, most of which will make things considerably worse. Known unknowns include a massive blow-up in the Middle East (possibly including radioactive fallout) and a true WMD event in the US. Both would throw the international situation into such disarray that anything, literally, could be possible, including the loss of democracy in many countries (including here). Unknown unknowns ... heck, maybe some ITT guy will invent antigravity energy and all our problems will be solved. Or perhaps Jesus will return and personally fuel our SUVs for all eternity. (It is this last scenario that I am personally betting on).

To: GST who wrote (88483)	11/6/2007 7:28:29 AM
From: Joe Stocks	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

GST - Good post. What I see someday is that many of the large US multinational companies will find that they are doing so much more business in other countries that they will outsource their headquarters to other countries. Many thought outsourcing manufacturering was a good thing, and then certain services. I see more management moving overseas as only a natural progression. There is no reason that in the future a large conglomerate that is based in the US, but doing most of their business in China, having a Chinease CEO and moving their headquarters there. In fact, it is possible that those same multinationals will be mostly owned by Chinese shareholders. Globalization? Very bad for the US. Globalization does not raise all boats as most have predicted. The effect would be more of equalization. I also see the US moving to a poorer standard of living. I think we have to ask ourselves why does the rest of the world need us? At one time that was easy to answer.