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To: Dinesh who wrote (74532)11/10/2007 8:48:43 AM
From: Elroy  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 77400
 
I could find much by way of free data. But SPY 3year std deviation is of the order of 8% while mean is about 13%. SPY pretty much tracks SP500.

I don't know what "SPY" means, and don't really know what you're talking about....



To: Dinesh who wrote (74532)11/10/2007 8:48:44 AM
From: Elroy  Respond to of 77400
 
whoops, deja vu!



To: Dinesh who wrote (74532)11/10/2007 8:48:53 AM
From: Elroy  Respond to of 77400
 
And again deja vu!



To: Dinesh who wrote (74532)11/10/2007 10:20:50 AM
From: RetiredNow  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 77400
 
Dinesh, you're discussion of statistics on this thread with Elroy is akin to speaking to a wall. He doesn't understand the word statistics, much less concepts like std dev and probability theory.

But thanks for your post. You simply quantified what I meant by the downside risk being close to nil. I'd say .0002 is close to nil.

Elroy, nil means zero, in case you didn't know. .0002 is very close to zero. A little explanation seemed in order, since you didn't get it the last post.



To: Dinesh who wrote (74532)11/11/2007 8:04:41 PM
From: John Koligman  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 77400
 
Dinesh, I hear what you are saying, but I've been reading an awful lot lately (and with some relish I must admit) about all those wall street 'quants' that said the same thing, and developed all those fancy strategies that seem to regularly cause some type of meltdown like the one we are currently going thru due to the CDO meltdown.

Regards,
John