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To: Elroy who wrote (74533)	11/10/2007 10:32:31 AM
From: RetiredNow	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77400

I don't know what "SPY" means, and don't really know what you're talking about.... I rest my case. You don't know much about statistics, do you Elroy?

To: Elroy who wrote (74533)	11/10/2007 11:53:01 AM
From: Sr K	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77400

SPY is the ETF for the S&P 500 at 1/10 the value. It is sometimes called the SPDR for Standard & Poor's Depository Receipts, but after this first one, there are now SPDRs for other segments such as Mid-Cap stocks. SPY is the one for the S&P 500. It is often the most actively traded security. On 11/9 it traded 277,731,444 "receipts" on the American Stock Exchange, and was 2nd in volume, topped only by QQQQ. But I believe you know that. What I know without any statistics is that the odds of the SPY not moving 10% down or up over the next 12 months, from any point in time, are probably less than 66.6%. So that leaves at least 1/3 odds that the SPY will move at least 10% over the next 12 months. All excluding dividends. Dinesh wrote: "I could find much by way of free data" but seemingly meant "I could not find much by way of free data." I, too, could say I don't know what Dinesh was talking about if Dinesh could find much by way of free data. Most people who trade SPY don't know what they are trading and whether they are buying or selling at a discount or premium to the underlying securities. I don't know of any broker who allows one to order SPY (long or short) by the differential to fair value rather than price. But I have to assume private trading models and software do calculate and act upon such differentials. Most buyers or sellers of SPY probably think it is the equivalent of 1/10 of the SPX, but it is not. Many probably have no idea how dividends within the SPY are treated, accrued, and paid. I believe looking at a "3year std deviation" hides the fluctuations in the data. What you want is 1/3 of the sum of three 1-year std deviations. Or something like that.