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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GraceZ who wrote (94606)	11/13/2007 10:42:30 AM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

'There is a 50/50 chance some public HB declares BK in the next six months to a year' I think you can buy for the long haul a DHI or PHM on panic selling at much lower prices in mid single digits when the news hits that some of their smaller poorly capitalized rivals go under..

To: GraceZ who wrote (94606)	11/13/2007 11:07:13 AM
From: ahhaha	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

What is your objective? Superior cap gains within 1 year + 1 day. Definition of superior = double. It's higher now than it was the last time I asked even though the market has invented the Perfect Storm that nothing real as in real estate can ever again flourish due to thefact that "we can't know what we can't know". The other change is that they are now a hare's breath away from having their debt lowered to junk status. We all are a hair breadth from junk. Rating agencies have junk opinions which they later change. Frankly I'd rather buy companies whose price has fallen and whose prospects have improved than the inverse. The question was whether RYL was a buy, not whether a portfolio was better fitted with its addition. There is a 50/50 chance some public HB declares BK in the next six months to a year. The whole sector would gap down in this event, making your short term risk reward about even point-wise, 10/10. It is rare to find all lemmings jumping when one does. A few disagree and hold out. The question for RYL is whether the recession that has been predicted for years and therefore must soon be upon us, will impact RYL. Almost assuredly, it will not, since the recession will not impact income. They will give a recession and few will attend. If you want to give a recession, you have to bring booze first, so the cops can ruin the fun when they take the booze away. In spite of the mass myth invention the booze was never brought. I like to buy when the reward is at least double the risk. Maybe RYL will double in a year. They are still trading at a price that is 13 times the low they hit in the last housing debacle 16 years ago. I thought it was a S&L debacle. The company is worth maybe 4 times what it was worth back in the 90s. Cheap. That only slightly beats GPL in the interim. RYL still trades at a fairly good discount to its tangible book value. No goodwill there. It might be a trade (flip a coin) but it sure isn't a fundamental buy yet. No trade. Trade is for white man with forked tongue.