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Strategies & Market Trends : SiliconInvestor All Stars Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dale Baker who wrote (1543)	11/20/2007 6:15:47 PM
From: SouthFloridaGuy	Respond to of 1718

Probably not, expect bigger moves down and up. But August lows are good support for now. I still maintain that global growth is strong enough to keep the market on life support for a year or so, but once that falters, we could be in for a real mess. In the last two cycles there has been about an 18-24 month lag between credit events and the ultimate market top. One of the biggest issues is how fast this bloody thing is unwinding. It's scary, quite frankly. It just happened overnight. That's the wildcard for the US. Globally though I expect that there is enough momentum to carry emerging markets through 2008 because low interest rates are still providing a powerful stimulus to the economic growth.

To: Dale Baker who wrote (1543)	11/22/2007 3:44:15 PM
From: SouthFloridaGuy	Respond to of 1718

One more thing. I expect the divergence between "global growth" themes and US centric (i.e. financials) theme to continue at least until the Chinese Olympics. Global growth leading indicators aren't even close to 0 and the spread between real growth and real rates is way too wide. If you look at Nasdaq growth leaders they are still not even below their 3 month lows. In fact, they are very correlated to gold and other global growth themes the "bears" harp on. Gold is down in the past few sessions, is it in a bear market too? To short at these levels would be stupid. And the time to buy is now and continue buying Nasdaq 100 and emerging markets such as Malaysia, Brazil... The real bear market will begin in 2010.