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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elroy who wrote (74651)	11/21/2007 3:58:08 PM
From: RetiredNow	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 77400

No thx, Elroy. The offer you've given me is worthless deal. Here's the expected value of your offer using my probabilities: EV = -190.05 + 10.95 = $0. In other words, I have no incentive to take your bet. So I like how you structured it. But with my current investment in Cisco, I wouldn't stand to lose as much as your bet would have me lose (percentage wise). Let me explain. If the stock goes below $28, I'm still way ahead on my investment, since my average price is $17.25. So I'm winner, no matter what I do. Therefore, I'd much prefer my current bet, which in my book, gives me a very high probability of making money between now and Jan. As you know, I'm already betting with my wallet. I own Cisco shares and will not sell them, because I see great upside potential and minimal downside risk ahead. Did you know that already, Internet analysts are claiming the Internet is headed for a meltdown again...this time by 2010 they are claiming that the Internet will feel like we're on dial-up speeds again, if massive spending isn't done to upgrade the backbones. They are claiming that large Internet service providers and backbone owners will spend $137B over the next 3 years to beef up the Internet. We all knew that a major new upgrade cycle has been getting underway for networking gear, which is why Cisco's revenues have been growing at such a good clip. Anyway, guess who gets the lion's share of that $137B? You guessed it...Cisco. The next 2-3 years will be very good to Cisco and it's stock price. $28-29 is a gift. In 2-3 years, this stock will be at or above $50, barring a global synchronous recession or a nuclear terrorist attack somewhere in the world. Here's the article: news.bbc.co.uk