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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RetiredNow who wrote (74652)	11/21/2007 4:42:40 PM
From: Sr K	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

When there is no vigorish, of course the expected value on each side is $0 or "worthless". from 28.25 to 50 in 2 years is 33% per year and in 3 years is 20.96% per year. Are you kidding, or do you think an investment with "nil" risk of decline would have those expected returns?

To: RetiredNow who wrote (74652)	11/22/2007 12:14:09 AM
From: Elroy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77400

You're right, I picked exact odds rather than odds in your favor. So you'd bet me $180 against $10 that CSCO will not go below $28 prior to Feb? That has a positive return for you based on your 5% chance claim. Would you really do that - $180 versus $10 on whether CSCO hits $27.99 prior to Feb 1st? If so, I wish you were out here, I'd bet you a load on the 'will decline' side with those odds.