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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: nspolar who wrote (8451)	11/22/2007 12:02:40 AM
From: nspolar	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 33421

An old chart, previously posted then pulled. This chart and EW was not tracking ... that does not mean it was way off base. A conundrum for any EW person is to decide where to stop old waves and start new ones. Over the last several months I have looked at different indices, and have decided that it is very likely the classical EW bottom was for the SPX was in late '02. I have also looked back further, with what charts I have. The big guns such as Prechter and Neely have plotted the last upwave in the SPX (I believe) as a B wave. I am not so sure. I think it could well be a 5th of something. Hence I have redrawn the first attempt to this. If we have had a Big Top, the ensuing down move is going to last a long time. I happen to think it possible the Mayan Baktun in mid 2012 may play into the timing of 'something'. I also happen to think there are pivots on charts, of importance. The two latter issues have also had something to do with the line drawing here. A bit longer term view of the SPX. The wave structure is a bit clearer, from the different slopes attained, on each move or 'wave' up. This also indicates imo the last wave up, if complete, could be a vth of something. OTOH it could also be a 'i' of a whole new 5 wave series. The latter would infer a decent retrenchment here, followed by a lot more up. I have not called a Big Top, only suggested it is a possibility. I have been following these charts for quite a while and seen the possibilities. AND then quite some time ago divergences started to show up in the Trannies vs. The Dow. Next year will tell the story, but I see more down here before any kind of IT bottom. Maybe a fair amount. I think for this to be a Big Top the SPX has to retreat to below the 1300 area, before putting in an IT bottom. Lastly, you do not see this chart very often. A LT chart of the 30 yr yield. I think it will go below 4 % before bottoming. John got excited a while back and thot it was breaking out. It appears to me the 30 yr is in a vth of 5th down. It is usually that 'iv' of something point that creates false hope, and I believe the last pop was such. The long bond is breaking out imo (I'm in some bonds in my 401K). How long to hit the big bottom? Dunno, but I could guess maybe 3 yrs or so at least. I do not see a speedy end to this wave, but could be wrong. This chart imo is telling us that deflation is not yet over, AND that when the switch is made the new trend will likely last a long time. Is chit hitting fan? I think we have to wait longer for confirmation on that one. TF