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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (89151)	11/24/2007 11:24:47 PM
From: daveinmarinca	Respond to of 110194

Stuart Staniford's excellent study at <http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3236> shows the path forward. Staniford's 4% depletion number would result in a grinding, prolonged global recession. However, Matt Simmons weighed in this past Monday in the WSJ with the following, "Mr. Simmons scoffs at estimates that production from proven fields will decline only 4.5% a year. He thinks a more realistic rate of decline is 8% to 10% a year, especially because modern technology actually succeeds in depleting fields faster. " www1.investorvillage.com IMHO, Simmons 8 to 10% number is more likely and will have a dramatic, accelerating and irreversible impact on the world economy, finances and politics. Watch TOD in the months ahead for Staniford to revise Figure 1 continuing the depletion slide.

To: orkrious who wrote (89151)	11/25/2007 11:44:37 AM
From: John Vosilla	Respond to of 110194

'We may not get that bad, but I know think it's not out of the realm of possibilities' It depends whether the hip hop generation finally gets that debt slavery, record wealth disparity and relentless currency debasement impacts them the most and revolts against the establishment like the 1960's.

To: orkrious who wrote (89151)	11/25/2007 6:19:28 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

Argentina was a different situation because they issued debt in a currency they could not print (USD). US, by contrast, was very smart to issue confetti in exchange for products of value from its mercantilist "partners". (note that Europe is now as much in hock to China as the US is.) also, it sounds like they (Argentina) had a lot higher level of corruption to begin with (before the end of 1:1) than we have in the US. i think US TEOTWAWKI will be due to peak oil, but it won't just be US which gets hit. i don't think US will undergo an Argentina-style isolated economic implosion. before that happens we will cause World War III -nfg-. US economic and military hegemony will not go down without a fight. most likely scenario in my book is proxy wars in the ME which explode into a world war. also interesting that he said cheap gold rings are better currency than gold coins, since nobody assays on the street corners (and carrying gold makes you stand out).