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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Riskmgmt who wrote (2737)	11/30/2007 12:07:42 PM
From: Paul Kern	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71463

Are we overdoing the negativity? I see 7.5 billion invested in Citi from really sophisticated investors. Are they crazy? Crazy? No. They got an 11 per cent convertible and that might keep C in business but I don't know if that can save their dividend. The question is: If securitization was the cash cow and securitization is dead, where will the money come from to pay the divvie and the vig on the cash advance. Etrade took a whopping 27 cents on the buck for their toxic paper and since assets are worth what a counterparty is willing to pay, the paper is worth only 27 cents on the buck until some one else comes along who is willing to pay more.

To: Riskmgmt who wrote (2737)	11/30/2007 12:09:55 PM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71463

I agree 100% Ray... Locking in property at bargain prices in the states with cheap long term financing seems like the best play on all you described. Opportunities will abound from the weak currency, cheap cost of capital, infrastructure in place increasingly more and more costly to replicate, safe haven status of the US ect.. Huge divides in this country a pause for concern..wealth disparity being biggest of all.. Still expect interest rates down the road to be much higher and J6P on average falls farther behind here in the states..

To: Riskmgmt who wrote (2737)	11/30/2007 12:17:37 PM
From: The Wharf	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 71463

I see 7.5 billion invested in Citi from really sophisticated investors. Are they crazy? << If your holdings are in US it also could be considered a measure to self protect. I can ask another question is old debt harder to service than new? I would say yes. One carries obsolete burdening future the other is present with future.

To: Riskmgmt who wrote (2737)	11/30/2007 1:43:29 PM
From: kaydee	Respond to of 71463

<<It is fashionable to beat upon America right now but it's still a great place to live and the future can be awesome.>> I kind of agree and disagree here <g/ng> I sincerely think, we all are proud of American democracy, heritage, culture diversity,, deep liquid markets, great entrepreneurs, fundamental research in science/medicine, geographical diversity, military strength etc... But what people dislike now is the rampant disregard for balanced budget, practice of bailing out speculators, manipulated economic data like inflation, initial signs of empire building etc... ( "too big to fail", as you know, might become "too big for a bail out"). I don't mind bailing out WS, but it should done as a last resort, not first. For example, after senior mgmt takes some action like a hefty pay cut, ZERO bonus this year, and like raising capital through a secondary issue, though it is a painful process... I agree America is still a great place to live provided we act!!!

To: Riskmgmt who wrote (2737)	11/30/2007 4:28:19 PM
From: ggersh	Respond to of 71463

"Now to the question that you pose, how long will foreigners accept low returns etc. Every time we have a scare, money flows into the T-bonds and t-bills, a flight to safety. If one looks around at the world in times of crisis what would be better than US treasuries." Thats a big if now. IMHO they arent buying our Treasuries. More than likely its the PPT and Banks buying them. Americas Markets are no longer the Free Markets you talk about. And if you could explain how Treasuries are safe when all you hear about is China going to the nuclear option and dumping their Treasuries. Its all a fallacy....BWDIK