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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael97123 who wrote (250899)	12/6/2007 6:46:26 PM
From: Nadine Carroll	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

i agree surge has worked militarily but nothing has really changed politically That's unclear, there seems to be some progress. See below. As I mentioned before, it doesn't make sense to think that political progress could precede military stablity. Nobody deals until he sees that his side is not going to win it all on the field. American troops are a lightening rod. On the contrary, they seem to be a valued buffer, as far as the Iraqis are concerned. They are a lightning rod to the jihadis, but as you say AQI is mostly gone now. We should draw down as it makes sense to draw down, no more no less. Power-Sharing Ends Northern Iraq Dispute By LAUREN FRAYER – 2 days ago KIRKUK, Iraq (AP) — Sunni Arabs ended a yearlong political boycott Tuesday in Kirkuk — the hub of Iraq's northern oil fields — under a cooperation pact that marked a bold attempt at unity before a planned referendum on control of the strategic region. The Sunni-Kurdish deal — urged by U.S. diplomats — could also move ahead other reconciliation bids demanded by Washington but stalled by disputes that include sharing oil wealth and compromising with Sunnis who backed Saddam Hussein's Baath party. Sunnis have struggled to find political footing since Saddam's fall, as majority Shiites cemented control of the government and security forces and Kurds enjoyed an economic boom in their semiautonomous enclave. A planned referendum on Kirkuk, possible next year, could give the Kurds another windfall. It will ask whether the province — and its important oil fields — should fall under the Kurdish borders or continue to be governed by Baghdad. Apart from the petrodollars at stake, Kurds have a strong cultural and emotional attachment to Kirkuk, which they call "the Kurdish Jerusalem." But Kirkuk's Arabs — who include many Shiites resettled by Saddam — largely favor continued rule by Iraq's central government. Turkey and other countries in the region with Kurdish minorities have long feared that Kurdish rule of Kirkuk would encourage Kurds to break away from Iraq. Tensions spiked when Sunni Arab lawmakers walked out of the provincial council in November 2006, claiming discrimination by the Kurds. The boycott ended Tuesday after Kurdish lawmakers agreed to allot one-third of government jobs, such as police and other officials, to Arabs and appoint an Arab as deputy governor. Adding a deputy governor is a roundabout way for Sunni Arabs to gain more power, despite currently holding only six of the provincial council's 41 seats. The Kurdish bloc dominates with 26 seats, largely because Sunni Arabs across Iraq sat out the last provincial elections, in 2005. Turkomen — the smallest of the area's main ethnic groups — hold nine seats. They also prefer rule by Baghdad, but have lobbied for their own sovereignty if Kirkuk is swallowed by the Kurdish region. Kurds are generally thought to have a slight majority in the province, with Sunni Arabs close behind. But a census has not been conducted in 50 years. Returning Sunni lawmakers said they hoped an Arab deputy governor would prevent their bloc from being steamrolled by the Kurds. "Last year, we felt that decisions were forced on us. That wasn't power-sharing — we had no key representation even though we were sitting there," said Ramla Hamid, one of the Sunni Arab lawmakers who retook her council seat Tuesday. The Arabs' return to politics culminates a year of behind-the-scenes prodding by other Iraqi leaders and American diplomats. "It's important, but it's really just the first small step in a long reconciliation," said Howard Keegan, head of the State Department team aiding reconstruction in the Kirkuk province. The Kurdish majority "doesn't need the Arabs to govern, but that they want a unity government anyway is significant," Keegan said, adding that cooperation from all parties is needed to "make it to the referendum and avoid violence." Tuesday's move also represents the Arab lawmakers' tacit approval of the Iraqi constitution, Keegan said, including Article 140 — which calls for a census and referendum on Kirkuk's status by the end of this year. Officials have said they will not make the 2007 deadline, but hope the vote will happen sometime next year. It is also unclear when new elections for the Kirkuk provincial posts could be held. During Saddam's rule, tens of thousands of Shiite Arabs were moved to Kirkuk under an "Arabization" program. At the same time, many Kurds fled the area after Saddam accused them of siding with Iran during the 1980-88 war. Since Saddam's ouster, thousands of Kurds have returned to Kirkuk — only to find, in some cases, Arabs living in their homes. Article 140 calls for a period of "normalization" in Kirkuk — providing housing for Kurdish returnees and compensation to Arabs who volunteer to return to their ancestral homes in Baghdad or southern Iraq. But the process is slow, and there are cries of fraud from both sides. ap.google.com