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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GST who wrote (89816)	12/22/2007 2:25:46 PM
From: paul61	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

So true. A guy on CNBC, I think said China is building 50 NEW airports. A staggering idea when he said he could not remember the last time the US built one!! Thanks for all the input. Paul

To: GST who wrote (89816)	12/22/2007 4:59:07 PM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

>>>We are staring in the face of stagflation<<< Not to speak of starvation. Not for the United States: that's the one area we are very well placed, and it's not a negligible advantage. Of course Canada is even better placed. But except for an occasional news story deploring the prospective cost of corn flakes to the American consumer, almost no notice is being taken of the fact that the world has less than a two months' supply of food in stock.

To: GST who wrote (89816)	12/22/2007 5:10:53 PM
From: KyrosL	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

These hordes of new consumers are also producers. Their productivity soars when they leave the farm for the city. And even though their consumption jumps, so do their savings. So on a net basis they add to the worldwide supply of goods and services. There is a handful of countries that are now consuming that excess supply, with the US taking the lion's share. The US is about to stop being the consumer of last resort for this excess supply. What happens then?

To: GST who wrote (89816)	12/23/2007 4:47:19 AM
From: westpacific	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Population growth is greatest in places that can barely afford to put a tin roof over their heads. I stated invest overseas, that is where demand will grow, the China story is good for our entire lives. China is America, circa 1907......we decline, they grow. Sure, demand side will see growth as population grows into 8/9B mark by 2050.......more than anything it will put a major stress on resources. Demand can only be pushed so far, so fast. Remember I am only talking out to 2015, after that I see a whole new massive bull market starting anew. Between there and now - a whole different story. West ---- For three decades, water has been indispensable in sustaining the rollicking economic expansion that has made China a world power. Now, China's galloping, often wasteful style of economic growth is pushing the country toward a water crisis. Water pollution is rampant nationwide, while water scarcity has worsened severely in north China — even as demand keeps rising everywhere. China is scouring the world for oil, natural gas and minerals to keep its economic machine humming. But trade deals cannot solve water problems. Water usage in China has quintupled since 1949, and leaders will increasingly face tough political choices as cities, industry and farming compete for a finite and unbalanced water supply.

To: GST who wrote (89816)	12/24/2007 10:38:56 AM
From: John Vosilla	Respond to of 110194

'We are staring in the face of stagflation -- I buy that and have said so for some time now. But we at the same time need to understand that demand for goods and services is soaring worldwide -- the idea that demand is on the verge of collapsing, and many on these threads have tried to argue, is laughable. Look at money supply - but don't look only at money supply.' More and more people moving up from third world status at an alarming rate by moving to the cities and or/industrialized advanced democracies like the US and western Europe. Folks also living much longer thus decreasing overall productivity and increasing government outlays even more. All further point to shortages of things we need, higher costs to produce and transport products and rising prices. Also the trend of the younger generations unleashing 'sleeping equity' sitting dormant in bank accounts and home equity of the older depression era family members as they die off is not factored into spending and continued spread of US consumerism. We might be in modest recession that never gets reported as such due to inflation stats being way understated. If this is the best the depression/deflation crowd can do in the face of our biggest housing downturn we'll ever see then it is obvious they were totally wrong on cash being king for anything besides stepping aside of real estate during the crash now well underway for two years.. More than likely, being anti capitalism, these folks will be blindsided by the coming cycle as were tech and housing bubbleheads of recent years. Bond bubble is the biggest baddest bubble yet to fall IMHO..