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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: ajtj99 who wrote (72860)12/26/2007 5:08:21 PM
From: Secret_Agent_Man  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
this is not true That $500-Billion the EU pumped is likely going to fan inflation in the near term and likely help propel a global market blow-off.

The end game to this is real bad. Think of all the money pumped into the system since July, and the stock markets have basically moved sideways during that time. Once accommodation levels out or drops, the markets will likely react adversely in a manner we have not seen for several years.


the "injection" of 500 Billion is not correct they actually drained, this 500 billion figure keeps getting quoted, but is indeed misleading-
see taffy pull-
wallstreetexaminer.com



To: ajtj99 who wrote (72860)12/26/2007 5:44:50 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 116555
 
aj, the EU did not pump $500 billion.
I had it wrong. Hussman has it correct.
hussmanfunds.com
Mish



To: ajtj99 who wrote (72860)12/27/2007 10:28:58 AM
From: Rarebird  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 116555
 
<<Think of all the money pumped into the system since July, and the stock markets have basically moved sideways during that time.>>

True. However, Bull markets do not end with a whimper — they end with a bang!

<<The end game to this is real bad>>

Agreed. However, the most accurate model for forecasting a recession (ECRI), one which has correctly forecast every recession, is still saying there will be no recession. Moreover, the bond market, which would rally if a recession were coming, has been selling off recently. That's a sign that the chances of recession are receding.

Sometimes I wonder if the wealth of the US consumer has been woefully underestimated.