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Politics : Rat's Nest - Chronicles of Collapse -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: the navigator who wrote (6856)	12/29/2007 11:32:55 AM
From: Wharf Rat	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24213

There has been some discussion lately about decline rates. I did a quick calculation of North Sea decline rates according to the EIA’s International Petroleum Monthly, spreadsheet 1.1d and found these decline rates. 2003 decline rate 4.67 percent 2004 decline rate 5.71 percent 2005 decline rate 9.01 percent 2006 decline rate 8.39 percent But keep in mind that this was the rate for the entire North Sea even though some new production was coming on line every year. So the decline rate for only the mature fields was far greater, probably in the range of 12% to 15%. In 2007 the UK had the Buzzard field come on line and Norway recently had five new fields come on line. (Though production from three of them has been reported as “disappointing”.) When the average for 2007 is posted in early March, the North Sea will still show a decline but due to these new fields it will not likely be as great. A 2004 report showed that for the past six years Oman’s Yibal field had been declining at a rate of 12% per year. According to the Department of Energy’s Energy Assurance Daily of December 28, Cantrell is declining at 23% per year. Mexico’s November Crude Oil Production Down 8.2 Percent as Cantrell Oilfield Continues Decline According to a report on the website of Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex), the state-owned company’s oil production fell 8.2 percent in November from the same month last year. November output fell to 2.9 million b/d, down from 3.16 million b/d a year earlier. The fall has been attributed to the company’s inability to stem or replace declining output from the Cantrell oil field, the country’s largest field. According to Mexico’s Energy Information Agency, the Cantrell field’s November production fell 23 percent from a year earlier to 1.28 million barrels a day. I recently read a report that said Alaska’s oil was declining at a rate of 6% though I cannot pull up that report right now. In conclusion it seems to me that the average decline rate for mature offshore fields is in the range of 12 to 23% while onshore mature fields decline at an average rate of 6% to 12%. However this is only during the “collapse” phase of their decline. After their collapse they seem to have a long tail where very little oil is produced but the decline rate is in the range of 1% to 5% per year. Ron Patterson theoildrum.com