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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (245516)	1/5/2008 1:33:29 PM
From: dougSF30	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Given that a large drop over the past week or two was also experienced by AMD, STX, etc, I'm not sure how much of the drop one can attribute to Intel-specific causes, be they analyst reports or whatever, vs. sector (ok, Intel is a sector leader, I admit) or general macro econ stuff. Maybe half-and-half.

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (245516)	1/5/2008 2:26:12 PM
From: smooth2o	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

If what you say is true, there should be an investigation by the SEC. Smooth

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (245516)	1/5/2008 3:02:36 PM
From: b4dt4ste	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

OK, think back to two years ago; January '06. Intel had just reported record revenues. Price was 26.xx. Next few months INTC dropped to under 17. What was the cause ? Revenue/margin slowdown caused by excess inventory. As I recall, Intel missed their earnings in Jan 2006 because of AMD. INTC tanked to ~$20 while AMD rose to $40 in Jan-Feb 2006. That happened before INTC previewed their C2Ds during the IDF in March 2006. However, I agree with you that this time INTC is in a much better position, which makes the recent sell-off seem irrational. Since I expect the strong support level at $20 to hold, I am picking up shares (and calls & writing puts) and will be averaging into the sell-off. I believe that good tech stocks sometimes get sold off irrationally. Look at NVDA -- it tanked from a high of ~$21 in Apr 2006 to ~$11 (about half) in July 2006, only to rise again to $26 a few months later. Now it is at ~$30. In other words, this large-cap stock first drops to half in 3 months and then bounces back a few months later --- think of how much money one can make with the use of options?

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (245516)	1/5/2008 7:44:03 PM
From: seti	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

As far as I know, there is no excess inventory in processors. In fact, one third of AMD's capacity will be shuttered in Q1 and Q2, which are the weak period. Which means there will be a shortage of non-Intel inventory. And it is reasonable to assume that Intel will not wage a price war against itself. So why did the idiot fund managers panic ? Did I forget to say they are idiots ? They are not idiots. Given the price action, if they had managed to dump at 26 or 25, then they are happy and made the right move.