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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (8667)	1/16/2008 4:50:59 PM
From: nspolar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

We are getting closer to a good but false rally, imo. Within a week I would say. Might be straight up for a few days. The bottom before this rally could and I think will serve as a double bottom, for a longer term correction that should last until near end of May. Following the double or near double bottom, if it happens that way, we could/should have one boisterous move up. My line in sand for SPX is closer to 1300, maybe a bit above. Getting closer. For the general markets to continue up, this has to be a rough and tough correction ... i.e. long, choppy and reasonably deep. Must really discourage the bulls and suck in the bears, before a huge bear feast begins. Also feel we are nearing a potential Big Bottom in the NDX. Target was in the 1800 plus range for that. Getting closer. More importantly I believe the CCI (as well as XOI) indexes have put in huge IT tops, and will correct back significantly. The speculative froth was over the top in the commodity arena, and money will flow out of that sector like a bucket full of water with a false bottom. Where will this money then go? Financials anyone? AND gold has put in even a bigger IT top. I happen to think it is heading back to 500, maybe it will even do a rapid cross of 400; before it bottoms. The miners are crumbling and later this spring the move down will accelerate. Miners have imo been in a net distributive mode for a long long time. The stories of 2008 are yet to be told, but what worked last year may not work this year. The 30 Yr keeps inching down, and the general system loves all that cheap money. I think I may even have a shot at redoing my ARM, for an equivalent rate but a LT one. My 5/1 ARM is due for first adjustment later this year, Bernanke is pulling the levers, and yes a melt down in the commodity arena will give him lots of rope, so much so that he will likely put it around his own neck, or that of his successor. He will do so and not even realize it, thinking he is so smart in the interim. The politicos will love it too. As you may have noticed, it is becoming politically unacceptable to allow a decent correction in the market. And all this talk of a recession by those same politicians is one reason to suspect there won't be a real one. Suggest one go read recent comments of the INTC CEO. I don't think the herd did, as they made their way to the exits. Ain't no reason to get in a hurry about going long here, rather it is best to be very patient, and let the data continue to roll in. Me thinks the best chance comes on the double or near double bottom possibility, as the risk of more downside gets greatly reduced. And in the sea of red today, the BKX, SOXX, and the Trannies were all green. The SOXX and BKX ....