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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (29823)	1/23/2008 3:47:36 PM
From: E_K_S	Respond to of 78670

Hi Jurgis - I continue to like COP long term especially with this announcement earlier this week regarding their 1/2 interest (a $2.6B investment) in TRP's Keystone pipeline project. The Keystone pipeline project is a new oil pipeline capable of shipping 590,000 barrels of Canadian crude daily to U.S. refiners. reuters.com From the article:"...The line is one of several new conduits planned to handle the burgeoning output from the oil sands, where new projects are expected to nearly triple production to about 3 million barrels a day by 2015...." Therefore COP is investing now so they can take advantage of the huge pipeline and distribution demand that should triple in the next 7 years. I continue to add to both TRP and COP. EKS

To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (29823)	1/23/2008 4:16:20 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Respond to of 78670

On the "safe" side, I continue to add to WSC. With WSC cash mostly (?) spent by now, I expect to either have a full share buyout by BRK or a big rebound. The downside remains limited by the book value, though of course WSC now owns a chunk of WFC purchased in Q3/2007. It is not clear if Cort acquisition of Roomservice Group will go into the WSC balance sheet. It was announced as BRK purchase and as purchase by Cort, but Cort is owned by WSC which is of course itself formally owned by BRK. It is also not clear how good is the business purchased - I don't always agree with Buffett and Charlie on their purchases. ;)

To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (29823)	2/21/2008 12:29:44 AM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78670

Based on $80/barrel oil, this analyst values COP NPV at $124/share up from $112/share. At todays close of $81.60/share, COP appears to still be a great value play selling at a 50% discount from this analyst's estimated NPV. McDep LLC Independent Stock Idea January 23, 2008 mcdep.com From the report:"...Summary and Recommendation Despite seeing a steep decline in stock price for buy-recommended ConocoPhillips (COP), we believe the oil and gas company is financially strong, well-managed and undervalued in the market. Discussing fourth quarter results reported today that exceeded our projections, chief executive Jim Mulva appeared calm and confident. Those results support our December 18 increase in Net Present Value (NPV) to $124 a share from $112 a share prompted by an increase in long-term oil price for calculating present value to $80 from $66 a barrel. We also allowed for higher taxes to be imposed by the state of Alaska and the province of Alberta. We judge current stock market turmoil to be a financial problem, not a fundamental problem with the oil and gas industry or ConocoPhillips. Likely government responses to debt-stressed capital markets may keep oil price on its long-term uptrend. Meanwhile COP stock trades at the lowest McDep Ratio of at least our last dozen analyses of the company..." EKS