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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Grandk who wrote (79076)	1/24/2008 7:06:17 PM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 94695

SP is about 26% undervalued relative to bonds. Crashes usually happen when it is 35% or more overvalued. If the bonds get going lower, we may see that, then a crash. -g- That's just a "scenario". I think a low may have been put for a while, bonds will sell off some, stocks will rally some, no clue where we are going from here - I guess we'll need a sell signal, which can come a lot earlier than 1735. In fact, if this is a bear market, it could come in a month around these levels. -g- So, this price is not a price target, the sell signal in the model is moving in time, and is now resting near the lows. It will take some time for it to get higher. -g- No buy signal yet, but we may get one within a week. Personally, I think the lows may have been seen, as it is not unusual for those to occur soon after options expiration. A move to new highs will surprise absolutely everyone. Why is it possible? Well... the Fed got power until it is taken away by the falling dollar. Judging by the T-bonds, this has not happened yet.