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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Real Man who wrote (79077)1/24/2008 9:26:10 PM
From: Cabo Eddy  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 94695
 
Vi, I think the bulls are going to be disappointed at the next Fed meeting. The Fed got snookered into cutting this week when they thought the world was falling apart because of problems in the USA, when really it was a rogue trader across the pond. Europe wasn't down huge because MBIA was feared about going out of business, it was down because people thought Soc Gen was bust and had to unload 50 billion in losses.

The Fed didn't want to cut before the meeting or they would have cut last week. Their hand was forced early and they aren't going to cut next week or the max they will cut is 25bp.
Look at Fed Futures or gold or the dollar, bulls are going to be sadly disappointed.



To: Real Man who wrote (79077)1/24/2008 9:35:02 PM
From: Paxb2u  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 94695
 
Vi,

You may be right,but I can't help but believe if I was holding current bonds and looking to replace them I wouldn't. I'd just sell them. The $ from a bond perspective appears to be ok because its probably Am $s buying into a safe haven. The $ is going down in relation to most currencies. These bonds will go down in value and interest rates will go up no matter what the FED does on short term rates. The question is whether or not those $s will be reinvested in Am equities. I know the rest of the world (those that hold our $s) have no interest in seeing the Am system fall apart and are willing to help some what. However, at some point they have to think about their own a$$. Not saying we won't get some decent bounce, but from what I observe, we have just gotten too cute and the amount of inflation we are about to see in the next couple of years will not be good for Am mkts or our system---Peaceb2u



To: Real Man who wrote (79077)1/24/2008 10:42:39 PM
From: carranza2  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 94695
 
...if this is a bear market, it could come in a month

You're not utterly convinced this is a bear market????