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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (28756)	1/29/2008 5:17:45 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217561

Russia claims it can provide stability during US downturn will be an "island of stability", boasted finance minister Aleksei L Kudrin last week at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Foreign currency reserves of $478bn, derived from windfall oil profits, are now the largest in the world per capita among big economies and will "play the role of an airbag" for the country, Kudrin told the Russian Information Agency. "Russia will soon be the focus of attention as a haven of stability." Russia claims it can provide stability during US downturn By ANDREW KRAMERIN MOSCOW IN ALMOST a decade since the Russian debt crisis of 1998, finance officials here have amassed an enviable war chest with the largest per capita currency reserves in the world while paying down nearly all sovereign debt. They are now describing Russia as the most insulated from the ill effects of a United States recession among the chief emerging-market economies, an extraordinary role for a country on its knees not so long ago. Russia will be an "island of stability", boasted finance minister Aleksei L Kudrin last week at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Foreign currency reserves of $478bn, derived from windfall oil profits, are now the largest in the world per capita among big economies and will "play the role of an airbag" for the country, Kudrin told the Russian Information Agency. "Russia will soon be the focus of attention as a haven of stability." Some large banks are agreeing, though cautiously, that Russia seems to be the strongest of the so-called BRIC leading emerging-market countries, a group that also includes China, India and Brazil. Russia stands out as potentially least susceptible to an American recession based on trade, reliance on international capital markets and the degree to which growth is driven by exports. "Russia is probably more insulated than other BRIC emerging-growth economies," said John Thain, the new chief executive of Merrill Lynch, who was visiting Moscow last Wednesday. Thain added the caveat that "the world is a very interconnected place, and we saw all the world's equity markets react negatively". Russian officials and Moscow-based equity analysts have been strong proponents of the idea known as decoupling, which holds that some developing nations are strong enough and self-sufficient in the face of the declining dollar and waning American influence to part ways with Washington economically, amid a reordering of global finance. The theory was debunked somewhat by the worldwide stock sell-off this week, including the downturn on the Russian Trading System stock exchange, which was off 20% from a high on December 12 before rebounding at the end of the week. In its gyrations, it has largely mirrored big European and Asian exchanges. Yet other evidence is emerging that at least some investors are differentiating between emerging markets based on their degree of vulnerability to an American recession and are opting for Russia. A week last Friday when investors pulled $4bn out of emerging markets in general, Russian-dedicated funds had a modest inflow of $30.7m, according to EPFR Global, a company that monitors global fund flows. Russian funds have recorded inflows for 19 consecutive weeks in the face of worsening US economic news. "It has been suggested by a number of strategists that Russia is among the more attractive among emerging markets," Brad Durham, managing director of EPFR, said. "It is one of the least correlated to the United States economy." This results in part from Russia's minuscule trading relationship with the US and the sour political relations between the countries over Nato expansion, missile defence, energy policy, and other issues. Russia's exports to the US account for only 3% of its total, compared with 16% to Brazil, 19% to India and 21% to China, said Durham. Its largest trading partner is Germany, a leading customer for Russian natural gas. In the long term, this will work to Russia's disadvantage by isolating the country from the benefits of exposure to the world's largest economy, said Yaroslav Lissovolik, chief economist at Deutsche Bank here. In the short term, it will cushion the country from an American downturn, he said. The full article contains 647 words and appears in Scotland On Sunday newspaper.Last Updated: 26 January 2008 4:42 PM

To: TobagoJack who wrote (28756)	1/29/2008 9:23:35 PM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217561

It's not oil. It is food that powers countries. China and India risk more being derailed by lack of food rather than by lack of oil and gas. The efforts that individuals put in gaining education as means of getting out of poverty, drove urbanitazion and left the fields without the brains. Only the arms and legs. Thailand putting buffalos back to plow. Too expensive for tractors. Look to the MQ's son. Instead of wearing boots and tending cows and fields he is hard at work putting mobile networkls in a tiny market. Total distortions!!! All those high-tech eforst of the Asians will back fire. They are all going to fight for food. We need to reverse the course and put R&D and attadt the bright minds to the agricultural sector.