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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: John Vosilla who wrote (90976)1/29/2008 12:46:07 PM
From: Horgad  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
That guy is off his rocker. His example of how the housing market works is way to simplistic to represent what is really going on. Whether or not he is right on his general premise of how the economy will fair is a different story, but that first bit of trash made me want stop reading the rest.



To: John Vosilla who wrote (90976)1/29/2008 1:05:02 PM
From: NOW  Respond to of 110194
 
LOL



To: John Vosilla who wrote (90976)1/29/2008 1:30:27 PM
From: Archie Meeties  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 110194
 
The first two "no credit crisis, no recession", are accurate, the third is just a guess.

The author failed to address why all future inflation indicators are going lower and why almost all commodities are flat over the past months (gold is the exception).

See the manufacturing data?

"Orders for new durable manufactured goods increased in most sectors last month. It was the biggest gain since July. Read full report.
Excluding the 11.3% growth in transportation goods, December orders rose 2.6%, the first gain since September and the biggest since July.
The December increase far exceeded economists' expectations of a 2.2% gain. See Economic Calendar. Another sign of strength was the upward revision to November orders, which rose 0.5%, much stronger than the previous estimate of a 0.1% gain. "



To: John Vosilla who wrote (90976)1/29/2008 5:34:23 PM
From: bruiser98  Respond to of 110194
 
The thought came to me as I was reading about the $300,000 transaction: a poor credit risk buys a home from a solid citizen. The solid citizen banks the $300k. The bank loans out $3 million to other poor credit risks. Cycle 10-1 or 11-1 loans-to-deposits ratios a few times you have a credit bubble. The $300k disappeared into the banker's personal portfolio.