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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GST who wrote (91093)	1/31/2008 5:11:49 PM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

>>We can have a stock rally and a steady dollar till summer>> This is a speculative market for traders. The individual investor remains for the most part out of this market (at least in the sense of not committing new funds) at this juncture. I find nothing unusual about the stock market rally over the past week or so. I say this because bear market rallies are facts of life and are intended to maul stock market bears too. This is why it is often said that "cash is king" in a bear market. The stock market has been pricing in this week a half-way decent monthly Nonfarm payrolls report tomorrow. Sure, todays weekly initial claims were an absolute disaster. But that came out to late to be discounted in tomorrows monthly report. Non-Farm payrolls is typically a lagging indicator. I'd short the opening rally tomorrow. I expect ISM to continue to be very weak. Most US Financial Institutions show neither fiscal prudence nor moral responsibility basically because they know that Big Daddy, the Federal Reserve will bail them out (with their printing presses running inside their basements), making sure they can meet all calls for payment. If the Federal Reserve succeeds, hyperinflation will result. We will know if the Fed has succeeded when most, if not all, US banks and other US financial institutions will be seen to meet all calls for payment without having to sell any major part of their own investment portfolios to raise cash. Maybe if our young children did not see these immoral bailouts, they would work harder in school, knowing that they must only depend on themselves to be a success

To: GST who wrote (91093)	2/1/2008 8:58:47 AM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

'The dollar has two possible legs to stand on -- higher interest rates or higher growth. Ben is banking on higher growth to hold the nose of the clownbuck above water' I imagine the expectation is a steep yield curve with fed funds perhaps dropping another point and long term treasuries remaining range bound while broad money supply grows 15-25%. Drag from home construction keeps subpar growth and lower inflation expectations for a while. Not a bad scenario for the real economy if they can make this happen.. can JP Morgan break out of this quintuple top here and hold? Certainly anyone short financials/homebuilders should be watching this 139.142.147.19