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Politics : American Presidential Politics and foreign affairs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Peter Dierks who wrote (25642)	2/4/2008 3:07:33 PM
From: TimF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71588

China's rising navy will increasingly challenge American hegemony. Not soon, esp. not "on the high seas". The resources, technology, training, experience to be able to equal or surpass the US Navy will be a long time coming, and may never come esp. if we work to keep our navy strong. But before they gain the ability to openly challenge us across the oceans, they will gain the ability to challenge us close to China (where they can use ground based air and missiles to back up their navy), and also at some point they might gain the ability to significantly threaten merchant shipping with subs (imagine something like the "Battle of the Atlantic" in the Pacific, where China's navy is inferior, like Germany's was, but still able to cause a lot of pain). I don't think such a war is going to happen China's leadership has shown itself to potentially be aggressive, but also not prone to extreme risks, and full scale war with the US is a potentially regime changing risk for China. (And that's not even including the possibility of nuclear escalation.)