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Technology Stocks : Spansion Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rink who wrote (3315)	2/9/2008 5:51:02 AM
From: BUGGI-WO	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4590

@Rink - PRAM Thanks for your additional input. As time goes by, it looks like our old predictions come true, that there are no real new technologies, which could scale and which show equal/ better or near equal DIE sizes. So, I'm wondering, what Intel could do with PCM, but I could imagine, that cell sizes will be "large" too. The only remaining question is, how far could NAND scale and under which circ. ? It seems like 4x nm (NAND) could be done with high high costs. When we trust Micron/Toshiba, some type of high 3x nm could be done too. I don't know how SPECs will be at that point and how yields will look like, but as said a few times already, the node progress slowed already signi- ficantly and its costs go up for high high end machines in a sharp way. Just look, that Toshiba's new FAB (300mm), which has to be build, will cost 6,6B USD. I have many problems to see such an investment could show green numbers ever. Alone the virtual interest is gigantic, not alone deprec. - lets do it in 5-6 years, which will bring this ONE FAB alone to around 1,1-1,3B USD per year. Thats without people and other costs. Only amazing. And this shows to me, that the "easy" node gains for NAND are over. Its not a question of if, its a question of when and how much money these guys are willing to throw down the road. BUGGI