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Technology Stocks : Spansion Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Woerns who wrote (3344)	2/12/2008 12:46:09 PM
From: Pam	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 4590

My last post was not intended to be a bombardment over Intel. Woems, that comment was not for you. Actually it was a question if Intel also uses 300mm FABspace for NOR. As a SPSN holder I am interested in Intels/STMs NOR offerings and competitiveness. I do not know for a fact if Intel is using any 300mm lines for NOR but most likely they are NOT because the RoI would be poor. There is no pricing power in NOR business and unless demand/supply balance out, making money will be difficult in this business. As some have alluded to on this thread, MirrorBit has had half a node advantage over comparable FG NOR (StrataFlash, etc.) even with just 200mm output for at least a few years now, and yet despite this cost advantage, SPSN has been losing money. So better cost structure in itself is not sufficient to determine profitability and win this war. With 300mm o/p their cost structure would get even better, but until we see what shape Numonyx will have when it is an independent entity, it is too early to figure out what the competitive landscape will look like. Will Numonyx have similar debt burden that Spansion has? Samsung doesn't have debt problem but I do not know how good they are at NOR and how this would impact the competitive landscape? BTW also for Numonyx it is essential to address new markets beyond NOR. The PCM thing is far from being a marketable product. For me its an open question if the Numonyx deal materializes at all. Thats an important question for SPSN shareholders. I think, all players have to think beyond NOR. Also, it is a bit too early to write off PCM and it is hardly fair to compare a mature NOR technology with emerging PCM technology, which is just taking it's initial baby steps. If they can nail down the manufacturing process and PCM works as per specs, the future will be bright, years down the road else it will die. It is not meant to kill NOR overnight. We hardly know anything about the manufacturing process for PCM. Comparing just the nodes at which it is getting manufactured is not the only thing that determines the cost/bit! Numonyx- the deal may or may not get financed. As I wrote earlier, they need to revalue the business and the assets they have. Since then both INTC/STM have written off some assets, whether that is sufficient, too early to say. We will find out soon.