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Technology Stocks : Spansion Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pam who wrote (3345)	2/12/2008 2:05:11 PM
From: Joe NYC	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4590

Pam, As some have alluded to on this thread, MirrorBit has had half a node advantage over comparable FG NOR (StrataFlash, etc.) even with just 200mm output for at least a few years now, and yet despite this cost advantage, SPSN has been losing money. Intel used to have a process technology node advantage - until late 2007 when Spansion caught up. Form most of 2007, Intel was ramping 65nm, while Spansion was ramping 90nm. Only in late 2008 Spansion started ramping 65nm (some on 300mm). So the it is unclear if SPSN had a cost advantage. Mirrorbit advantage was nullified by process technology disadvantage. Now, in 2008, Spansion is on process node parity (for the most advanced products), has Mirrorbit, and also has 300mm advantage. Joe

To: Pam who wrote (3345)	2/12/2008 2:51:26 PM
From: BUGGI-WO	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4590

@Pam - NOR pricing " I do not know for a fact if Intel is using any 300mm lines for NOR but most likely they are NOT because the RoI would be poor. There is no pricing power in NOR business and unless demand/supply balance out, making money will be difficult in this business. As some have alluded to on this thread, MirrorBit has had half a node advantage over comparable FG NOR (StrataFlash, etc.) even with just 200mm output for at least a few years now, and yet despite this cost advantage, SPSN has been losing money. " You overlooked the major point. Just look a few years into the past - there was Intel as THE big player, AMD and STM, which "copied" Intel. There was a time, AMD lost money with CPUs and earned much money with Flash. Its a while ago. What did Intel thought at that time? Easy, because NOR at Intel is "small" compared to the "rest" lets bring AMD into a worst case mode with selling NOR flash under costs. Thats what Intel did. Just keep in mind - Intel lost e.g. 100Mio. per quarter at Flash and earned 2000Mio. on the CPU side, AMD earned nothing in CPU or even lost money and now lost money in Flash too. Its easy to see the result. Once you keep AMD at low low earnings levels or even "red", they could not invest -> the result is a clear manufactoring lead at Intel -> cost lead etc. pp. Its near impossible to REALLY prove this point, but its easy to see this. NOR was a "good" industry untill Intel decided to fight against AMD in the flash-segment, which was "easy" for Intel. From this utterly Intel-move, the whole NOR industry hasn't reached a healthy status. Thats it. You always want to show, that some stuff is better and in NOR you couldn't make money - the point is, thats clearly wrong. And its still my thought at these times, that the Newco "IPO" will change the landscape again, just because 2 BIG guys have to earn money long-term. Its easy to spot the future when you have this into a mind. BUGGI

To: Pam who wrote (3345)	2/12/2008 4:59:54 PM
From: THE WATSONYOUTH	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4590

As some have alluded to on this thread, MirrorBit has had half a node advantage over comparable FG NOR (StrataFlash, etc.) even with just 200mm output for at least a few years now, and yet despite this cost advantage, SPSN has been losing money. So better cost structure in itself is not sufficient to determine profitability and win this war. True....but how much was due to the fact that Intel was willing (until now) to lose perhaps $200M (my guesstimate) per quarter to maintain share and hurt AMD. I recall when Intel tried to raise prices 4 or so years (probably in a last attempt at profitability) ago thinking that there wasn't excess capacity elsewhere, they in fact lost massive share when other suppliers stepped up. I have not followed SPSN....but I don't believe their losses are any way near that level. What about Numonyx? Will it be able to continue to stomach the combined losses of both companies? I guess there will be economies of scale.....but enough to even break even?? Just hard to believe. What do you think? Seems to me if Samsung is willing to absorb big losses in NOR, then either Numonyx and or SPSN are in big trouble. This memory stuff is just brutal. THE WATSONYOUTH