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Politics : American Presidential Politics and foreign affairs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: TimF who wrote (26018)2/12/2008 3:19:14 PM
From: DuckTapeSunroof  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 71588
 
No problemo!

Regarding your question number 1):

"Taken in isolation from spending issues, where the tax cuts a good, bad, or neutral thing, in your opinion?"


Answer - Good, (most all tax cuts are 'good'), but just a modest good.


(Reason: Bush rejected several much better tax policy suggestions from his OWN panels of tax advisors, and went with a 'cheaper' plan that introduced more complications into the tax codes. In short, he lacked the guts for what would have been truly a VERY GOOD change, rejected simplification, rejected making paid-out dividends a Corporate tax deduction as his own panel recommended, etc.)

Re your question number 2):

"Was the net result of the tax cuts, good, bad, or neutral, in your opinion?"

Is that a HYPOTHETICAL or RHETORICAL question?

In other words... like your first question above, is this supposed to be considered IN ISOLATION from all other policies the administration had, all other actions (such as the other half of the budget ledger, the SPENDING HALF)?

'Cause that makes all the difference!

Is this supposed to be NOT A REAL WORLD CONSIDERATION (not an opinion about the net result of Bush administration policies as a whole), but rather 'would something have been "good" if taken out of the real world context, and considered in a laboratory, or a computer model, on it's own?

I'll give you BOTH possible answers below so you won't have any reason to complain:

A) If considered in the Real World, as the totality of all of the administration's policies
--- (as all three econometric modeling efforts from the year his tax changes were under consideration projected, the CBO analysis, the OMB analysis, and Trend Macrolytics 'Laffer Curve friendly' analysis) --- in the early years after passage of the tax changes the economy experienced a 'modest' (possibly up to 1/2 of a percent in additional GNP at the maximum benefit year) increase in growth... but the continual additions to the national debt (continually adding to the unavoidable interest rate payments on the debt - now $200 Billion a year, and climbing FAST), and the upward pressure put on corporate access to financing occasioned by the continual federal need to borrow from the public markets - the 'crowding out effect', by mid-decade ERASED all prior benefits accrued from the modest Bush tax cuts, and, moving forward from that point in time, the net-net macro effect on the nation's economy produced by the Bush policies stands to grow from a 'modest negative' (where it is right about now) to a 'major negative'... with economic growth reduced up to 1% or so BELOW what it otherwise would have been, absent the effects of his budget policies.

B) Your question if taken IN ISOLATION, (in 'the laboratory' or inside a computer model... but exclusive of all of his other budget policies and actions)
, as I've already answered above, the modest tax changes (& additional complications to the code - a negative factor that must also be considered) would stand as a 'modest good'. (Although, unfortunately, he rejected several OTHER POSSIBLE code changes which were recommended to him and which - I believe - held the possibility of being MAJOR 'GOODS'... producing MAJOR ECONOMIC BENEFITS.

More's the pity. No 'guts', no 'glory'. :-(