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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tommaso who wrote (97154)	2/24/2008 1:29:31 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206193

COW is very relevant to this thread, as agriculture is as about as heavily dependent on energy inputs as the airlines are on the price of oil for jet fuel, and corn use for ethanol hits the price of meat. We often make more money on related industries and stocks than mainstream plays like Exxon or Chevron. Refiners like VLO, service companies like RIG, suppliers like Maverick MVK (oil pipes), oil tanker companies, uranium plays, etc. Having made some nice money following you into Uranium stocks, even though I was late and following you, I am very happy to read your posts about COW. What degree of leverage does COW have, or is it roughly 1:1 with the commodity prices ?

To: Tommaso who wrote (97154)	2/24/2008 7:34:46 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206193

Meat will be short. Grain will cost even more. Meat will double in price. COW will double in price. Brazil will be in fat city!!! This is music for us.

To: Tommaso who wrote (97154)	2/24/2008 1:49:49 PM
From: nrg_crisis	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 206193

Hi, Tommaso - I've had COW on my radar for a while now, and been looking at MOO as well. MOO is a more diversified etf that holds stocks in agribusiness firms like Deere and Monsanto; COW is a pureplay on cattle and hog futures. MOO has outperformed COW by a lot over the past few months finance.yahoo.com But if I understand your thesis correctly - and I may not - I'd guess that's more or less where you'd think we should be at this point, with grain prices rising (and the Deeres and Monsantos along with them) but beef prices not yet because of its inventory overhang. I'm less bullish (so to speak) on COW than you are right now, but I do like the story. I'd probably be less skeptical if I could see actual data on the number of cattle currently on ranches, or how that number has changed over the past year, or the throughput of slaughterhouses over time. To put it in terms my energy-addled brain can understand: COW is like USO or UNG (actually like a combination of both); MOO is like OIH. Both USO/UNG and OIH are affected by energy demand as well as supply, but they can be out-of-step with each other. We have inventory/injection reports on crude and natural gas; I guess I'm saying I'd like to see equivalent reports for livestock. [Maybe we could base them on our 'Eating Degree Days'??] About the upside for COW: it's not clear to me that beef prices would double before Americans started cutting back on how much of the stuff we eat. Gasoline demand seems to be pretty inelastic; I'd bet that meat demand would show more elasticity if there were an equivalent upward move in price as we've seen at the pump. Anyway, thanks for the post, and for the 'food for thought' 8-) nrg