Hello Pezz, Report:
I revisited and acquired some serfs in the form of PSPT finance.yahoo.com at 8.16, but only 4% of the earlier abandoned position - slowly slowly and by and by, because there is a broader market storm ahead, I fear, that could well engulf all. I certainly believe we collectively deserve what may engulf all.
If you remember, I had abandoned the serfs for shelter Message 24299478 at 11.91 and no, that was not a brilliant trade, and so we will not go back into history and bring up the time of Adam and Eve as my wife tends to do during any argument about any and everything.
I feel that the company was good value at 14 when I bought, better value at 12 when I sold, cheap at 8.16, may turn out to be a bargain at 6 (highly unlikely due to cash and real estate holdings, and unleveraged balance sheet); and
I figure that the cost saving imperative of its existing and potential clients ought to grow stronger as the economy slips from officially sanctioned recession to real full-on stagflationary depression - as far as I am concerned, even receptionist's jobs can be outsourced, via nothing more than a web cam and flat screen TV made in China, a friendly girl in the Philippines, and some as yet unlit fiber under the ocean.
Besides, the company is trading at reasonably low multiple of earnings and revenue, high 6/shr of cash, securities and receivables, and certainly debt-free.
So why am I only buying back 4% of what I sold earlier? Because I fear the credit crunch, and feel its Force perturbation propagating across the ether of the econo-financial continuum and the fabric of the geo-local political space. Something awful has already happened, Wastrel Maestro Al Greensputin was born, and Professor Charlatan Ben Helicopter BurnAndKaput is still around, we are underestimating the nature of the issues and extent of the damage still to be, have not discounted the splash damage of officialdom attempts at intervention, forgot about how moronic the politicians can be, missing out how unreasonably stupid the electorates are and will be, and so we must take care.
Separately, I feel comfortable about my overall stance of being afraid and aggregate positioning of being suspicious.
I am at:
• 52% high cash comprised of Au / Pt (@ 15.5 out of 52), US T-bills/ HKD (@ 27.5 out of 52), and a leftover 9% sprinkled across CAD, CHF, YEN, SGD, and THB;
• 14% wagers, in order of relative weight, for energy (oil, natural gas, uranium, and coal), agricultural commodities, Japanese REITs, gold, platinum, palladium, and miscellaneous shares, including the above mentioned serfs;
• 6% bets against Empire’s financials, real estate, and Russell2000; the Middle Kingdom China; Soon-to-be-out Mexico; and just-in-case, oil / gas and strangely, gold; and
• 28% investment in rental real estate.
At some point I expect to go heavily against gold, so as to garner strength to buy more gold; and
At some other juncture I figure to wager heavily for gold so as to make up for being so heavily ladened with USD / HKD.
In other words, with the necessary hedged (energy, food), and cash flowing (energy, real estate), and my sleep point in balance, I mean to focus on the horrible lead-up to planetary money regime reset, across the global dark interregnum, over the multi-generational event horizon, and into the dark hole where no light can escape the financial gravity well, in alignment with the vortexing Force, playing out the drama of once in so many generations, automatically and inescapably repeating, as one empire descends and another kingdom rises.
With regard to TeoTwawKi Dawn, we must watch and brief, wager and loot, zig and zag, survive and prosper, else we be sashimi, sprinkled with gold flakes, silently screaming, and then, debt-ly history.
I am speculating that the USA GDP ought to easily implode to 1/4 its current size in global purchasing power at the onset of the inevitable and effective default, and go down from there, meandering, to a comfortable and stable flatline, in line with the usual bankrupts.
As such a debt-ly empire go down in history, the vortex will of course spiral all in its wake down to the reset abyss, where most will financially perish and some will manage to economically survive.
When the pain is all over, the economic water level in terms of PPP expenses and so PPP incomes will be equalized, and one paper money is just as no good as the next fiat cash, all cross-border borrowings will be tagged to an unambiguous standard, and ... oh, too horrible to go on.
If so, we must go still higher in gold and energy and agriculture commodities allocations, like 100% less real estate holdings (can always hedge out the entirety of real estate risk by paper derivative means) and then, all of a sudden, go 100% rental real estate either in our own neighborhoods or of the new global sovereign, directly, or via paper construct.
In the mean time, the market will do its best to stuff most of the bulls and ram the majority of the bears, in the least pleasant fashion, at the most inconvenient junctures.
Well, it is my working theory, so far, so good, because my love for on-line unreal last man standing tournament is full-on applicable, where fear is a survival trait, suspicion is helpful, and panic is rational.
Now, take one hard look at Clinton, Obama, and McCain, and think about all the officialdom on Capitol Hill and across the land, and the smarties on Wall Street, and tell me how events can possibly turn out different.
Recommendation: if you will do only one trade, then buygold, and if two trades, buyultrashorts.
Chugs, TJ
P.s. it is interesting that, even with planetary record Message 24376666 forex reserve buildup, Empire supporter China and Empire lapdog Japan can buy less and less gold than the year before, and the desert tribes demand the difference be made up with higher energy cost, else Jihad engulfs all their rulers and the world go dark, and so China and Japan finance the Empire's unwinnable war until the Empire can no longer be.
This, Pezz, is an equation that balances at TeoTwawKi point-of-arrival. |
